2020—2021年中国宏观经济更新预测——简评第15次百位经济学家问卷调查结果  

China’s Economic Forecast Update for 2020-2021:A Review of the 15th Questionnaire Survey of Economists on China’s Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy

作　　者："中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组 林致远[1] 吴华坤 陈贵富[1] 龚敏[1] 王燕武[1] The Research Team of the China Quarterly Macroeconometric Model(CQMM)(Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]中国人民银行厦门中心支行

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第6期83-90,共8页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的再拓展”(17JJD790014);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平稳增长”(18JJD790007);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“供给侧结构改革的理论基础与政策思路研究”(16JZD016);国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”(20BJY231)。

摘　　要：基于2020年二季度以来,中国国内外经济环境的变化情况,应用中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM),对2020年三、四季度以及2021年四个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标进行了预测更新。结果表明:受疫情冲击的影响,2020年中国GDP增速预计将大幅回落,但依然能够保持2.0%左右的增速,CPI预计将上涨2.47%。虽然疫情冲击对国内经济的影响是短期的,不会逆转中国经济稳中向好、长期向好的趋势,但是,短期内宏观政策应充分重视疫情冲击对非国有企业投资的影响,以及疫情冲击对居民(特别是农村居民、低收入群体)收入增长和消费行为的影响。进一步,中国境外疫情的长期化趋势将可能在长期改变中国的外部经济环境。因此,宏观经济政策要加强协调配合,促进财政、货币政策同就业、产业、区域等政策形成集成效应,以"加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局"。Based on the economic performance of China and the world economy since the second quarter of 2020,this paper applies the China Quarterly Macroeconometric Model(CQMM)to project China’s main economic variables for 2020-2021.In contrast to the results from the 15 th questionnaire of economic scholars on China’s macroeconomic performance in 2020,this paper presents the reason for the forecast update and provides relevant policy recommendations.This is the29 th forecast conducted by Xiamen University’s research team on China’s macroeconomic outlook.The results show that:due to the COVID-19 pandemic,China’s GDP growth rate is expected to decline to around 2.0%in 2020,and CPI is forecast to grow by 2.47%.Although the stable potential growth of the Chinese economy in the long run will not be altered by the short-term negative impact of COVID-19,emphasis of domestic macroeconomic policies is placed on absorbing the shock of COVID-19 on private investment,as well as on the promotion of income growth,especially for rural households and low-income groups.Moreover,China’s external economic environment may be changed by the ongoing COVID-19 situation.Hence,macroeconomic policies in the next stage need to strengthen coordination and cooperation,promote the integration of fiscal and monetary policies with employment,industrial and regional policies,and"accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and of mutually-promoting domestic and international cycles".

关 键 词：中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM) 经济预测 疫情冲击 

分 类 号：F105[经济管理—世界经济]