基于综合健康指数的热缩材料寿命评估模型  

Life Estimation Model of Heat-shrinkable Insulating Material Based on Comprehensive Health Index

作　　者：宋鹏先[1] 王浩鸣[1] 房晟辰 刘继平[2] 唐庆华[1] 孟峥峥[1] SONG Pengxian;WANG Haoming;FANG Shengchen;LIU Jiping;TANG Qinghua;MENG Zhengzheng(Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300384,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Maintenance Company,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院,天津300384 [2]国网天津市电力公司检修公司,天津300300

出　　处：《绝缘材料》2020年第11期45-49,共5页Insulating Materials

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(SGTJDK00PJJS1800007)。

摘　　要：中低压电缆和开关柜作为数量最多的配电设备,其主要绝缘——热缩材料的运行可靠性逐渐引起了运维人员的关注,对热缩材料进行寿命评估的重要性日益凸显。本研究利用天津电力公司配网变电站所使用的不同运行年限的10 kV等级热缩件,通过大量试验测试,选取运行过程中热缩材料的断裂伸长率、断裂强度、介电常数、介质损耗因数和电气强度5个参量作为寿命评估参数,建立了热缩材料状态参数与健康指数评估模型,并结合特征参量的关联度与敏感度,采用层次分析法以削弱单一参量引起的评估误差,提高热缩材料寿命预测模型的准确性。应用该模型评估天津电力公司配网变电站所使用的10 kV等级热缩件的健康水平指数和寿命,得到其健康指数降至0.6时的运行年限为17年。结果表明该方法可行有效,能够为同地区热缩材料检修周期的优化、使用寿命的延长提供参考依据。Medium and low voltage cables and switchgear are the largest number of distribution equipment.The operation reliability of their main insulation—heat-shrinkable materials have gradually attracted the attention of operation and maintenance personnel,and the importance of lifetime assessment for heat-shrinkable material is increasingly prominent.In this paper,a large number of experimental tests were conducted on 10 kV heat-shrinkable parts with different operation years used in the distribution network substation of Tianjin electric power company,and five parameters such as elongation at break,fracture strength,dielectric constant,dielectric loss,and breakdown strength of the heat-shrinkable materials during operating were selected as the lifetime assessment parameters.The state parameters and health index evaluation model of the heat shrinkable materials were established.Combined with the correlation and sensitivity of the characteristic parameters,the analytic hierarchy process was employed to reduce the evaluation error caused by single parameter and improve the accuracy of the life estimation model for heat-shrinkable material.The model was applied to evaluate the health level index and service life of a 10 kV heat-shrinkable part used in the distribution network substation of Tianjin electric power company,it is found that when its health index drops to 0.6,the service life is 17 years.The results show that the method is feasible and effective,which can provide reference for the optimization of maintenance cycle and the extension of service life for heat shrinkable materials in the same area.

关 键 词：热缩材料 健康指数 寿命评估 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TM215[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]