伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Difference of Runoff Variation and Its Influencing Factors in the Typical Small Watershed of Issyk-Kul Basin

作　　者：伊丽努尔·阿力甫江 吉力力·阿不都外力[2,3,4] 丁之勇 孙杰 YILINUER·Alifujiang;JILILI·Abudouwaili;DING Zhiyong;SUN Jie(Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,College of Resources and Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆大学绿洲生态重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心,乌鲁木齐830011 [5]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2020年第6期198-210,共13页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1603242,41471173)。

摘　　要：基于伊塞克湖流域近70年来气温、降水和径流量资料,采用Mann-Kendall法、突变检验和小波分析进行研究流域气温、降水和径流量的变化特征及差异性,在此基础上,探讨区域气候变化对径流量的影响。结果表明:(1)1951-2012年伊塞克湖典型小流域气温呈上升的趋势;其中,乔尔蓬-阿塔站(湖盆中部)和克孜尔苏站(东部)气温分别在1975年和1989年后上升趋势增大,秋季增温幅度均对气温升高的贡献较大;2个水文站降水量变化相对复杂,整体呈增加趋势,秋季降水量增加幅度最大。(2)受气温升高和降水量的直接影响,研究区4个典型水文站年径流量变化趋势不一致,乔尔蓬-阿塔、琼-阿克苏和琼-克孜尔苏站径流量呈明显增加趋势,曲线值分别在1987年、1983年和1987年后开始表现为增加趋势;而卡拉科尔站径流量呈明显下降趋势,曲线值在1982年后开始表现为下降趋势。从年内不同季节的径流分配来看,乔尔蓬-阿塔站和琼-克孜尔苏站径流量增加趋势明显,夏季增加幅度最大;而卡拉科尔站夏季径流量减少趋势明显,下降幅度最大。(3)通过皮尔逊相关分析法和主成分分析法分析,在年际尺度上,各水文站径流量与气温、降水量之间呈较显著的相关性,气温的升高与降水量的多少影响径流量产量的多少。(4)从周期性变化分析来看,气温、降水和径流量的周期性变化均比较明显,波动变化基本一致,表明径流量对气温和降水的响应较突出。Based on the temperature, precipitation and runoff data of Lake Issyk-Kul in the past 70 years, the Mann-Kendall method, abrupt change test, and wavelet analysis were used to study the characteristics and differences of the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the typical watershed. On this basis, the effects of regional climate change on runoff were also discussed. The results showed that:(1) The temperature in the typical small watershed of Issyk-Kul basin in 1951-2012 tended to increase;the temperatures in Cholpon-Ata Station(central lake basin) and Kyzyl-Suu Station(eastern part) rised from 1975 and 1989 respectively. The increasing trend of temperature in autumn had a greater contribution to the temperature increase. The variation of precipitation was relatively complicated, and the overall trend was increasing. Among them, the precipitation in autumn had the largest increase.(2) The annual runoff changes of 4 typical hydrological stations in the study area were not the same due to the direct influence of temperature and precipitation. The runoff of Cholpon-Ata, Chong-Ak-Suu and Chong-Kyzyl-Suu station showed an obvious increasing trend While Karakol Station showed a significant downward trend. The trend of autumn in each station was significant, showing an increasing trend. From the runoff distribution in different seasons in a year, the increase of runoff in El Pont and Chong-Kyzyl-Suu station was obvious with the largest increase in summer. However, the decrease of summer runoff in Cholpon-Ata station was the largest.(3)Through Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis, on the inter-annual scale, there was a significant correlation between the runoff of each hydrological station and the temperature and precipitation. The increase in temperature and precipitation affected the runoff output.(4) From the analysis of cyclical changes, the cyclical changes of temperature, precipitation and runoff were obvious, and the fluctuations were basically the same, indicating that the response of

关 键 词：Mann—Kendall非参数检验法 累计距平法 小波分析法 伊塞克湖流域 吉尔吉斯斯坦 中亚 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学]