基于VAR模型的展览业与城市经济发展关系动态研究——以上海为例  

Dynamic Research on the Relationship Between Exhibition Industry and Urban Economic Development Based on VAR——Taking Shanghai as an Example

作　　者：王强 王春雷[1] 丁烨[1] 陶城 Wang Qiang;Wang Chunlei;Ding Ye;Tao Cheng(School of Tourism and Event Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学会展与旅游学院,上海201620

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2020年第5期11-23,共13页Tourism Forum

基　　金：上海市政府决策咨询项目“会展经济在推动法兰克福全球城市建设中的作用研究”(2019-12-17)。

摘　　要：展览业与城市经济发展的关系一直是会展研究的热点问题。本文基于2001-2018年上海展览业的时间序列数据,建立了以在上海举办的国际展览项目数量、国际展览项目展出面积和上海市国内生产总值为内生变量的VAR模型,进而通过脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,研究了上海展览业与城市经济发展之间的动态关系以及变量间的贡献度。研究发现:展览业与城市经济之间呈双向作用关系;城市经济是展览业发展的基础,展览会对城市经济具有一定的促进作用,但作用有限;相对于数量的扩张,高质量的展览会对提升城市经济帮助更大。As an emerging industry,the exhibition industry's economic impact was firstly studied by scholars.Specially the relationship between the exhibition industry and urban economic development has always been a hot topic in exhibition research.So what is the relationship between the exhibition industry and the urban economy?This paper takes the exhibition industry and the urban economy as the research objects,and selects the relatively developed city of Shanghai,China's exhibition industry center,as the research site,hoping that the research conclusion can answer the relationship between the exhibition industry and the urban economy.This paper reviews the existing research methods and main conclusions.It is found that the existing research may be more or less likely to overestimate the economic effects of the exhibition industry and the conclusions are all presented in a static way.This paper uses a new method to explore this topic in a dynamical way based on collecting the time series data of the Shanghai exhibition industry from 2001 to 2018,including the number of international exhibitions held in Shanghai,the exhibiting area of international exhibitions and the endogenous variables of Shanghai’s GDP,and using the VAR model to estimate it.Then impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition study are used to explore the dynamic relationship between Shanghai exhibition industry and urban economic development,and the contribution between variables is analyzed.The findings show that the exhibition industry and the urban economy have mutual influence,and there is a state of coordinated development between the economy and the exhibition industry,in other words,the role of the exhibition industry and the urban economy is mutually influenced.The exhibition industry will affect the city economy,and the urban economy will also affect the development of the exhibition industry;the development level of the exhibition industry is largely driven by the urban economy,in general,the better the city economy is,the

关 键 词：展览业 城市经济 VAR模型 动态研究 上海 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]