基于SWAT模型的挠力河流域地表径流数值模拟与不确定性分析  

NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL

作　　者：高尚 胡鹏[3] 崔嵩[1,2] 张祖麟 邢贞相[1,2] 张福祥 GAO Shang;HU Peng;CUI Song;ZHANG Zu-lin;XING Zhen-xiang;ZHANG Fu-xiang(School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Research Center for Eco-Environment Protection of Songhua River Basin,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Chian)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学松花江流域生态环境保护研究中心,哈尔滨150030 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [4]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《环境工程》2020年第10期83-89,共7页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404503);黑龙江省优秀青年科学基金(YQ2019E001);中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金优秀青年人才项目。

摘　　要：为探究水文模型参数敏感性及模型不确定性对径流模拟的影响,运用SWAT模型对挠力河流域地表径流过程进行了数值模拟,利用SUFI-2方法评价模型参数敏感性及不确定性对模拟结果的影响,选取决定系数(R2)与Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(ENS)对模型精度进行评价。敏感性分析结果表明:对挠力河流域径流模拟影响最大的4个参数是CN2(SCS径流曲线数)、SLSUBBSN(平均坡长)、SOL_BD(土壤湿密度)和SOL_K(土壤饱和导水率),表明SCS径流曲线数、土壤与地形地貌是影响挠力河流域地表径流最重要的因素。月径流模拟过程与实测水文过程拟合较好,率定期和验证期R2与ENS分别为0.68、0.67和0.76、0.44,均达到令人满意的结果。不确定性分析结果表明:p因子为0.78,r因子为0.94,模型不确定性较小,进一步验证了模型的适用性。研究结果可为其他相似流域SWAT模型的应用及参数的率定提供参考。Exploring the influence of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the hydrological model on runoff simulation has considerable significance.This study used the SWAT model to simulate the surface runoff process in the Naoli River Basin.The SUFI-2 method was used to evaluate the influence of the model parameter sensitivity and uncertainty on the simulation results,while the coefficient of determination(R2)and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(ENS)were selected to evaluate the accuracy of the model.The sensitivity analysis results showed that the four parameters,including the number of CN2.mgt,SLSUBBSN.hru,SOL_BD.sol,and SOL_K.sol were the most significant parameters for the runoff simulation of Naoli River Basin.It showed that CN2,soil and topography were the most important factors affecting the runoff of Naoli River Basin.The monthly runoff simulation process fitted well with the measured hydrological process,and the R2 and ENS were 0.68,0.67 and 0.76,0.44 during the period calibration and validation periods,respectively,which reached satisfactory level.The results of uncertainty analysis showed that the p-factor was 0.78 and the r-factor was 0.94,indicating that there was less uncertainty,which further verified the applicability of the model.The results could provide references for SWAT model application and parameter calibration in other similar basins.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 挠力河流域 地表径流 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]