数字金融影响了货币需求函数的稳定性吗?  

Does Digital Finance Affect the Stability of Monetary Demand Function of China?

作　　者：许月丽 李帅 刘志媛 Xu Yueli;Li Shuai;Liu Zhiyuan(School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510016,China;School of Finance,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510016,China;School of Science,Hebei North University,Hebei 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,510016 [2]广州华南财富管理中心研究基地,510016 [3]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,510016 [4]河北北方学院理学院,075000

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2020年第5期130-149,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点课题(19AJY017);教育部人文社会科学项目(18YJA790093);浙江理工大学应用经济学重点研究基地项目的资助。

摘　　要：本文利用合意货币需求量部分调整门限回归模型和ARDL协整突变检验两种不同的技术,考察了近年来迅速兴起的数字金融对中国货币需求函数全局和边际稳定性的影响。实证研究主要得到了如下结论:一是数字金融对货币需求函数的全局稳定性和边际稳定性都产生了显著的影响,而且这一判断在剔除其他金融创新形式的影响后仍是稳健的。不过,在时间维度上货币需求函数的全局不稳定性特征仍是可识别的。二是M0、M1和M2货币需求的边际稳定性受数字金融影响的程度各不相同,其中M0和M2所受影响较大,而M1则相对不显著。三是数字金融主要影响的是货币的交易需求,对家庭部门的投机性货币需求也有较显著的影响,而对企业部门的影响不显著。研究的政策含义是,数字金融等金融创新形式会引起货币需求函数的不稳定,这给货币供需均衡的政策操作实践增加了难度。因此,应通过加强金融社会基础设施建设和进一步的金融市场化改革,加速构建货币政策的利率传导走廊和传导机制,逐步将利率作为货币政策的中介目标,提高货币政策的传导效率和宏观调控的传导效果。This paper uses demand of consensual money to partially adjust the two different technologies:Threshold Regression Model and ARDL Co-Integration Catastrophe Model in order to examine the impact of digital finance on the overall and marginal stability of China's money demand function.The empirical results mainly draw the following conclusions:Firstly,digital finance has a significant impact on the overall stability and marginal stability of the money demand function,and remains robust after excluding the impact of other financial innovation forms;however,the overall instability of money demand function in time dimension is still recognizable.Secondly,the marginal stability of money demand for M0,M1 and M2 is affected by digital finance to different degrees,among which M0 and M2 are more affected,while M1 is relatively insignificant.Thirdly,digital finance mainly affects the demand for currency transactions,but it also has a significant impact on speculative money demand in the household sector,but has no significant impacts on the enterprise sector.The policy implication of the paper is that financial innovations such as digital finance will cause instability of money demand function,which makes it more difficult to operate the balance policy of money supply and demand.It is urgent to speed up the construction of interest rate transmission corridor and its transmission mechanism,gradually regard interest rate as the intermediary target of monetary policy,and improve the transmission efficiency of the monetary and macro-control policy by strengthening the construction of financial and social infrastructure and deepening the financial market-oriented reform.

关 键 词：数字金融 货币需求函数稳定性 部分调整门限回归模型 ARDL协整突变模型 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F832F822