基于SPEI的锡林河流域干旱演化特征分析  

Analysis of drought evolution in the Xilin River Basin based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

作　　者：张璐[1] 朱仲元[1] 席小康 王慧敏 王飞 ZHANG Lu;ZHU Zhong-yuan;XI Xiao-kang;WANG Hui-min;WANG Fei(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot,010018,Inner Mongolia,China;Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Xi’an,710068,Shannxi,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]陕西省水文水资源勘测局,陕西西安710068

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2020年第4期819-829,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779116);地区科学基金项目(51669018,51869015)资助。

摘　　要：以锡林河流域内及周边13个国家气象站逐日气象观测数据为基础,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),借助Mann-Kendall与Mann Whitney Pettitt突变检验、非参数统计检验以及重标极差R/S分析法,深入剖析锡林河地区多年干旱演变趋势及未来干旱预测。结果表明:锡林河地区干旱突变开始于20世纪90年代;近60 a来,SPEI表现出显著减小趋势,上游减小趋势较中下游段小,中下游段为旱情多发带,下游西北端是干旱存在的危险区域。在未来,流域旱情将有所缓解,但冬季旱情有持续加重的可能,应加强干旱监测。To analyze the evolution trend of droughts for many years and predict future droughts,we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),Mann-Kendall test,Mann Whitney Pettitt mutation test,nonparametric statistical test,and rescaled range R/S analysis method based on daily meteorological observation data from 13 national meteorological stations around the Xilin River Basin.The results indicated that sudden changes in the drought pattern began in the 1990 s.In the past 60 years,SPEI has shown a significant decrease trend,and the decreasing trend in the upstream is smaller than that in the middle and lower reaches.The middle and lower reaches are drought-prone,and the northwest end of the downstream is a dangerous area where drought exists.Although droughts are mitigated in the future,they may continue to increase in winters.Therefore,drought monitoring needs to be strengthened.

关 键 词：SPEI SPI 干旱变化 MANN-KENDALL 锡林河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]