金融周期波动对不同产业发展的差异化影响研究  

Research on the Differential Impact of Financial Cycle Fluctuation on the Development of Different Industries

作　　者：陈赤平[1,2] 李世权 CHEN Chi-ping;LI Shi-quan(School of Business,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan,Hunan 411105;School of Economics,Hunan Institute of Engineering,Xiangtan,Hunan 411104,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105 [2]湖南工程学院经济学院,湖南湘潭411104

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第6期53-60,共8页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目“生产性服务业与制造业融合发展的测度比较及其影响因素分析”(17A105)。

摘　　要：通过构建金融周期波动指数(FC),运用时变参数模型,研究了金融周期波动对不同产业发展的影响。研究发现:金融周期波动对不同产业发展的影响是非对称的。金融周期扩张将对第一、二产业发展产生负向影响,对第三产业发展产生正向影响;而且对第三产业的正向影响在短期即达到最大值,对第一、二产的负向影响在中长期才达到最大值。目前中国金融周期呈高位下行趋势,对第三产业发展产生显著负向影响,而产业结构演进趋势却要求发展第三产业,金融周期波动趋势和产业结构演进趋势存在方向上的背离。因此,产业政策和金融政策必须相互搭配,平抑资源在不同产业和不同时期的分配,既要减缓金融周期冲击对第三产业发展的不利影响,又要抓住机遇推进制造业的高质量发展。In this paper,by constructing the Financial Cycle Volatility Index(FC)and using a time-varying parameter model,the impact of financial cycle fluctuations on the development of different industries is studied.It has been found that the impact of financial cycle fluctuations on the development of different industries is asymmetric.The expansion of the financial cycle will have a negative impact on the development of the primary and secondary industries and a positive impact on the development of the tertiary industry;the positive impact on the tertiary industry will reach its maximum in the short term,while the negative impact on the primary and secondary industries reaches the maximum in the medium and long term.At present,China's financial cycle is showing a high downward trend,which has a significant negative impact on the development of the tertiary industry.However,the evolution of the industrial structure requires the development of the tertiary industry,and there is a deviation in the direction of the fluctuation trend of the financial cycle and the evolution of the industrial structure.Therefore,industrial policies and financial policies must be matched to control the distribution of resources in different industries and periods.It is necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of financial cycle shocks on the development of the tertiary industry and seize opportunities to promote the high-quality development of manufacturing.

关 键 词：金融周期 产业发展 产业政策 差异化影响 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]