农业灾情与农村生活水平的关系——以甘肃省河东地区为例  

Relationship between Agricultural Disasters and Rural Living Standard in Hedong Area of Gansu Province

作　　者：赵海莉[1] 田浩宇 李晓芹 王启雯 ZHAO Hai-li;TIAN Hao-yu;LI Xiao-qin(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2020年第22期217-222,235,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41361032)。

摘　　要：农业灾情与农村生活水平的研究有利于新时代生态文明建设,对“美丽中国”的实现具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。通过构建指标体系,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法研究了甘肃省河东地区各市(州)1991—2016年农业灾情与农村生活水平之间的因果关系及相互作用过程。结果表明:白银、定西、庆阳的农业灾情较河东地区其他市(州)严重,其农业灾情指数的平均值超过了0.5;河东地区各市(州)农业灾情指数的增长率在短期都有减小;长期看临夏的农业灾情指数的增长率呈波动的趋势,而白银和陇南则保持一个平稳的状态。定西、甘南、天水在受到自然灾害的影响后农村生活水平的提高幅度在短期仍呈上升趋势,而平凉和庆阳呈下降趋势。The study of agricultural disasters and rural living standards is conducive to the construction of ecological civilization in the new era,and also is importance of the realization of“Beautiful China”in theory and practice.The author has studied the causal relationship and interaction process between the agricultural disasters and rural living standards of the cities(states)in Hedong area of Gansu Province from 1991 to 2016 by the construction of the index system,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response function and other measurement methods.The research showed that the agricultural disasters in Baiyin,Dingxi and Qingyang are more serious than other cities(states)in Hedong area with the average value of agricultural disaster index exceeding 0.5.The growth rate of agricultural disasters index of each city(state)in Hedong area is reduced in the short term.The growth rate of the agricultural disaster index in Linxia in the long term is fluctuating,while it maintains stable in Baiyin and Weinan.In Dingxi,Gannan and Tianshui,the improvement of rural living standards after the impact of natural disasters still showed an upward trend in the short term,while it showed a downward trend in Pingliang and Qingyang.

关 键 词：农业灾情 农村生活水平 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 脉冲响应函数 甘肃河东地区 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]