基于前景理论和VIKOR法的空战威胁评估  

Air Combat Threat Assessment Based on Prospect Theory and VIKOR Method

作　　者：胡涛 王栋[1] 黄震宇[1] 孙曜 姜龙亭 HU Tao;WANG Dong;HUANG Zhenyu;SUN Yao;JIANG Longting(Aeronautical Engineering Colloge,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710038,China;Unit of 95974,Cangzhou 061000,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学航空工程学院,西安710038 [2]95974部队,河北沧州061000

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期62-68,共7页Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：针对当前空战威胁评估中未考虑决策者的认知局限、决策偏好难以确定,以及没有综合考虑个体遗憾和群体价值的问题,构建基于三参考点的前景理论和多准则折衷排序法的威胁评估模型。首先,根据待评方案之间的独立性,建立前景价值最大化规划模型,计算指标权重,避免主观赋权法带来的不确定性;为了克服单纯采用指标平均值参考点带来的信息丢失和结果分辨率下降的问题,借鉴逼近理想解排序法,引入正负理想点作为参考点,采用模糊分析法确定决策者对不同参考点的偏好权重;最后为了平衡群体价值和个体遗憾,反映决策者主观偏好,结合前景价值,采用VIKOR法对目标进行威胁排序。威胁评估算例仿真验证了方法的可行性和有效性。Aimed at the problems that the cognitive limitation and decision preference of decision makers leave out of consideration,and the individual regret and group value are under no consideration synthetically in the current air combat threat assessment,a threat assessment model is constructed based on the three reference points prospect theory and the vise-kriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje(VIKOR).First,according to the independence between the schemes to be evaluated,a planning model of maximizing the foreground value of the evaluation scheme set is established to calculate the index weight,avoiding the uncertainty brought about by the subjective weighting method.In order to overcome the problem of information loss and the decrease of the resolution of decision-making results caused by the simple reference point of the index average value,the reference approach technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is introduced,and the positive and negative ideal points are used as the parameters,the fuzzy analysis method is used to determine the preference weight of decision makers for difference reference points.Finally,in order to balance the group value and the individual regret,the subjective preference of the decision-maker is on reflection,and the prospect value is combined by using the VIKOR method to rank the threat of the target.The method is feasible and valid.

关 键 词：威胁评估 决策偏好 前景理论 三参考点 VIKOR 

分 类 号：V221.3[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]