生态优先视角下跨流域预留水权确权与配置  

Inter-basin reserved water right confirmation and allocation from the perspective of ecological priority

作　　者：吴蓉 王慧敏[1,2] 刘钢 黄晶[1] 穆恩怡 WU Rong;WANG Huimin;LIU Gang;HUANG Jing;MU Enyi(Management Science Institute,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Coastal Development and Protection Coordination Innovation Center,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Land Economics,University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB21TN,UK)

机构地区：[1]河海大学管理科学研究所,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [3]河海大学沿海开发与保护协同创新中心,南京210098 [4]剑桥大学土地经济学院,英国剑桥CB21TN

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2020年第5期13-37,共25页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA064)。

摘　　要：在生态优先、绿色发展前提下,提出生态需水差分整合移动平均自回归预测模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),据此在生态需水确权的基础上进行流域预留水权确权,并在水权确权的基础上探索水权期权交易模式下预留发展水权再配置方案,实现跨流域水资源优化配置的同时规避水权买卖双方风险,为跨流域特殊水权的确权与再配置提供参考。研究表明:受气候、政策的影响区域生态需水量呈现出较大变化;南水北调中线受水区天津和河北不具备自备预留发展水量的能力,需要依靠流域调度中心的统一协调;流域调度中心可以根据预测年预留发展水量的使用风险情况进行价格方案的灵活配置,实现预留发展水量经济与社会效益的最优化。The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)prediction model of ecological water demand is proposed on the premise of ecological priority and green development.Based on this model,the reserved water rights confirmation model using ecological water rights is developed.Depended on the confirmed reserved water rights,the feasibility in the reconfiguration of reserved developmental water rights under the options trading model is explored.The model can avoid the risks between water buyers and water sellers,meanwhile,it can achieve optimal allocation of water resources across river basins.It provides a reference for the determination and reconfiguration of special water rights across river basins.The results showed that:the ecological water demand has changed greatly due to climate change and policy,Tianjin and Hebei do not have the capacity of reserved water for development,which needs to rely on the unified coordination of the basin scheduling center.and the basin scheduling center can do flexible price configuration based on the possible use of reserved development water in the forecast year,which can optimize the economic and social benefits.

关 键 词：生态优先 跨流域预留水权 水权期权 南水北调中线 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]