袁河流域水资源供需平衡与空间差异  

Analysis and spatial differences of water supply and demand balance in Yuanhe River Basin

作　　者：刘鑫 温天福[1] 曾新民[2] 鄢笑宇 张范平 LIU Xin;WEN Tianfu;ZENG Xinmin;YAN Xiaoyu;ZHANG Fanping(Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China;Hohai university,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,南昌330029 [2]河海大学,南京210098

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2020年第5期94-101,共8页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：江西水利科技支撑项目(201821ZDKT07,KT201707,KT201704);江西省重点研发计划项目(20181ACG70018)。

摘　　要：依据袁河流域水系分布结合乡镇与水系等特点划分计算单元,从考虑工程与不考虑工程两方面分析袁河流域水资源供需平衡的时空变化,重点分析流域重要城镇所在单元的水资源供需平衡,以提高流域水资源规划管理工作的实用性。结果表明:不考虑工程的特枯年(95%来水频率)流域水资源无法满足需水,2025年缺水率6.7%,2035年缺水率7.7%;考虑工程的特枯年流域缺水更加严重,2025年缺水率16.6%,2035年缺水率17.5%。流域严重缺水城镇主要集中在干流沿岸,其中,芦溪镇、袁州区市区、分宜镇、渝水区市区等4个重要城镇是流域内缺水严重地区,年内水资源供需平衡的时间差异化明显。According to the distribution of water system in Yuanhe River Basin,the water supply and demand with or without consideration of engineering capacity is analyzed,which are divided based on the characteristics of town and sub-basin.The analysis displays the spatial and temporal variations of the water supply and demand to support water resources management,particularly in the major towns.The result shows that:the water demands can not be met under the 95%frequency,with the shortage rate of 6.7%in 2025 and 7.7%in 2035,furthermore,considering engineering capacity under the 95%frequency,the shortage rates of the basin increase to 16.6%in 2025 and 17.5%in 2035.The areas of water shortage are mainly focused on the mainstream of Yuanhe River Basin,particularly in Luxi,Yuanzhou,Fenyi,and Yushui,with significant differences in characteristics in a year.

关 键 词：供需平衡 需水预测 缺水率 空间差异 袁河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]