非预期性与全场景可行性:应对负荷与可再生能源不确定性的现状、挑战与未来  

Nonanticipativity and All-Scenario-Feasibility: State of the Art, Challenges, and Future in Dealing With the Uncertain Load and Renewable Energy

作　　者：翟桥柱[1] 周玉洲 李轩[1] 吴江[1] 徐占伯 谢小军 ZHAI Qiaozhu;ZHOU Yuzhou;LI Xuan;WU Jiang;XU Zhanbo;XIE Xiaojun(Ministry of Education Key Lab for Intelligent Networks and Network Security(Xi'an Jiaotong University),Xi'an 710049,Shaanxi Province,China;Xi’an Thermal Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]智能网络与网络安全教育部重点实验室(西安交通大学),陕西省西安市710049 [2]西安热工研究院,陕西省西安市710054

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2020年第20期6418-6432,共15页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61773309,61773308);华能集团总部科技项目(HNKJ18-H35)。

摘　　要：含可再生能源的电力系统优化调度是一个典型的多阶段随机优化问题。近年来,国内外学者已开始认识到非预期性及全场景可行性是必须满足的2个重要性质,直接影响调度结果是否可行。目前,已有一些行之有效的安全约束机组组合方法,可以满足火电与风电相配合时调度计划的非预期性及全场景可行性。然而,梯级水电系统、储能系统等与不确定性可再生能源、不确定性负荷相配合时,同样存在非预期性及全场景可行性难题,目前尚无有效解决方案。该文通过一个简单调度算例,解释了非预期性及全场景可行性的含义,并阐述其对于可再生能源消纳的重要意义。同时,分析火电机组、储能系统、梯级水电调度决策中非预期性和全场景可行性的不同特点,指出目前亟待研究的一系列科学问题。最后,指出非预期性及全场景可行性对电力系统现有调度方式及"备用"等传统概念的冲击,并设想了未来可能的调度计划编制方式。综合全文,可得到这样的结论:为应对可再生能源与负荷的不确定性,建立满足非预期性和全场景可行性的新一代调度模型和方法,不仅是可能的,也是必须的,在此过程中涉及到的一系列科学和技术难题有待于解决和克服。Optimal scheduling of power systems with renewable energy is a typical multi-stage stochastic optimization problem. Recently, the importance of all-scenariofeasibility(ASF) and nonanticipativity of the scheduling decisions has been realized by researchers. Some effective security-constrained unit commitment(SCUC) methods have been proposed to guarantee the nonanticipativity and ASF in power system generation scheduling with thermal units and renewable resources. However, the nonanticipativity and ASF related difficulties in the scheduling of cascaded hydropower systems/energy storage systems with uncertain renewable energy/loads are still not resolved. In this paper, the meaning and importance of ASF and nonanticipativity were explained by a simple example. Meanwhile, this paper analyzed the core difficulties in scheduling of thermal units, storage systems and cascaded hydro systems and points out a series of scientific problems needed to be studied. Finally, the influence of nonanticipativity and ASF on the existing methods and concepts such as "reserve" were analyzed and the possible future methodswere envisaged. In conclusion, in order to deal with the uncertainty of renewable energy and loads, it is not only possible but also necessary to establish a new scheduling method satisfying nonanticipativity and ASF. A series of problems involved are needed to be solved in this process.

关 键 词：电力系统调度 随机规划 可再生能源 非预期性 全场景可行性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]