经济增速放缓与区域动态调节  

Growth Slowdown and Regional Dynamics

作　　者：陈安平[1] Anping Chen(School of Economics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2020年第3期141-167,共27页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济增速下行的区域效应及机制研究”(编号71773036);教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目“我国全要素生产率提升与测算研究”(编号17JZD013)资助。

摘　　要：近年来我国经济从高速增长转向中高速增长,宏观经济的这一变化无疑会给区域经济带来冲击。由于我国区域之间存在明显的差异,各地对宏观冲击的响应可能不同。本文构建了一个衡量经济增速变化所产生冲击的指标,并将区域产出进行分解,然后运用差分模型,识别宏观冲击对区域各分解变量的影响及机制。研究发现,与受冲击影响较小区域相比,受冲击影响较大区域资本和就业的增长率相对下降,但单位资本产出和人均产出的增长率有所上升。分产业来看,二、三产业的资本和资本产出率对冲击的响应比第一产业更为强烈。进一步的研究显示,经济增速减缓时,企业面临的竞争压力增大,但投资于创新品的机会成本降低,因此受冲击影响较大区域更倾向于增加高技术产业,特别是高技术制造业的投资,从而促进这些地区产品升级和产业转型,使其生产率提高。上述发现表明,宏观经济的变化虽然给一些区域的发展带来了挑战,但也为其经济结构调整和产业转型升级提供了契机。China's annual growth rate has slowed from high to medium-high speed in recent years.Such macroeconomic changes could bring shocks to regional economy.Given that there exists substantial disparities between regions,the effects of macroeconomic shocks could be different across regions.We define macroeconomic shocks as the provincespecific changes in projected annual output growth and apply difference-in-difference approach to identify their regional effects.We show that capital and employment growth decreased in provinces that were hit hard by the shock,relative to less hard-hit regions,while effects on output-capital ratio and output-labor ratio were in the opposite direction.We also find effects are most pronounced for capital and output-capital ratio in the second industry.We argue that our findings can be rationalized by a pattern that adjustment to new technology were accelerated during the slowdown.Firms might make productivityenhancing improvements in the slowdown because of a decline of opportunity cost in innovation investment and an increase risk of closure.We find empirical evidence to support such a mechanism.We conclude that the growth slowdown has brought challenge to economic development for hard-hit regions but also provided opportunities for them to upgrade the industry structure.

关 键 词：区域动态调节 宏观冲击 资本产出率 人均产出 高技术产业 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]