中国的工业化:过去与现在(1887-2017)  

Industrialization in China:Past and Present(1887—2017)

作　　者：管汉晖[1] 刘冲[1] 辛星 Hanhui Guan;Chong Liu;Xing Xin(School of Economics,Peking University;China Construction Bank)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中国建设银行总行

出　　处：《经济学报》2020年第3期202-238,共37页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务专项项目“现当代中国的城市与乡村”的阶段性成果;国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD149);国家自然科学基金面上项目(70973003)的资助;教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(18JZD029)的资助;北京大学光华管理学院院长基金的资助。

摘　　要：从19世纪60年代第一批现代企业建立至今,中国的工业化经历了一个半世纪。本文首次将历史工业调查数据库和当代工业调查数据库合并,并结合宏观统计数据,研究我国工业化的发展历程及在世界上相对地位的演变。研究发现,我国的工业规模及在世界工业产值中所占比重都在2011年达到世界第一,目前是世界上工业门类最齐全的国家。工业在总GDP中所占比重1977年超过农业居于第一,并在2003年达到最高(60.11%),此后开始下降,并在2012年被服务业超过,这反映了我国整体产业结构的不断升级;工业总产值中先进制造业所占比重的不断提高也说明了这一点。20世纪以来我国工业区位的分布呈现了从扩散到集聚,再扩散到再集聚的过程,这一特点很大程度上与政府在某些时期对工业化的主导有关,工业部门内部轻重工业相对比重的变化很大程度上也与政府政策有关。工业部门的劳动生产率经历了从1912-1952年的负增长到1952-2017年正增长的转变,体现了我国工业从劳动密集型生产转为资本密集型生产及技术水平的提高。制造业企业的全要素生产率经历了从1933年的较低水平到20世纪80年代至90年代的迅速增长,此后也维持在较高水平,并且在不同时期的不同地区呈现出较大差异。本文的研究结论有助于更好地理解我国的工业化历程,并对下一阶段深入推进新型工业化道路提供一定借鉴。From the establishment of China's earliest modern enterprise in the 1860s,China's industrialization has experienced a period of one and a half century.Based on historical industrial databases and contemporary industrial survey databases,this paper studies the process of industrialization in China and its relative standing in the world.China's industrial scale and its share in world industrial output have reached top one in 2011,and currently it has most complete industrial sector in the world.The ratio of industry in total GDP exceeded that of agriculture in 1977,and reached the highest level of 60.11%in 2003.Since then,it has started to decline and was surpassed by the service industry in 2012.This reflects the continuous upgrading of China's overall economic structure.This is also illustrated by the continuous increase in the ratio of advanced manufacturing in the total industrial output.The distribution of industrial locations in China presents a process from diffusion to agglomeration,then re-diffusion to re-aggregation.This feature is largely related to the government's promotion of industrialization in some periods.The relative proportion of light and heavy industries in the total industrial sector changed frequently,which is also related to government policies.The labor productivity of the industrial sector experienced a transition from negative growth in 1912-1952 to positive growth in 1952-2017,reflecting the shift of China's industry from labor-intensive production to capital-intensive production and technological upgrading.TFP of manufacturing enterprises increased from 1933 to 1995 significantly then kept in a high plateau,and there are different performances for main regions in different periods.These findings help to better understand the industrialization process in China and provide some lessons for the future industrialization and upgrading.

关 键 词：工业化 经济结构 相对地位 基尼系数 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]