考虑反从众心理因素的微博网络舆情演化模型  

Public Opinion Evolution Model of Micro-blog Network with Anti-conformity Factor

作　　者：刘泉 贾媚媚 马晓普 贾茹 张新刚[1] LIU Quan;JIA Mei-mei;MA Xiao-pu;JIA Ru;ZHANG Xin-gang(School of Computer and Information Technology,Nanyang Normal University,Nanyang 473061,China;School of Software,Nanyang Normal University,Nanyang 473061,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳师范学院计算机与信息技术学院,河南南阳473061 [2]南阳师范学院软件学院,河南南阳473061

出　　处：《情报科学》2020年第11期16-20,共5页Information Science

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目“大数据社会网络视角的多层社交网络舆论演化关键技术研究”(182102310932);河南省科技攻关项目“Q波段的第五代移动通信发信机关键技术研发及应用”(182102210114);河南省高等学校科学技术研究重点项目“基于神经网络的并发多波段射频功放线性化技术研究”(19A510020);南阳师范学院校级科研项目“双层耦合网络舆论演化动力学研究”(ZX2017021);南阳师范学院校级科研项目“微博网络上的舆论演化动力学研究”(2019QN019)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】心理学因素对舆情演化有着重要影响。【方法/过程】目前,心理学因素对舆情演化的影响研究主要是定性描述,还较少见将心理学因素定量的研究。本文借鉴心理学研究的成果,将反从众心理引入到舆情演化模型中,并考虑微博网络中信息和观点的传播特点,构建了考虑反从众心理因素的微博网络舆情演化模型。【结果/结论】结果表明,反从众心理因素和信息传播率两个参数对舆情的极化具有重要的作用。当传播率较小时,其对终态磁化率的影响比较显著;当传播率较大时,反从众心理因素对终态磁化率的影响更为显著。本文的模型可以模拟新事物、新观点的传播过程,以及观点的极化过程,并体现了更加丰富的结果,可以为舆情的引导和控制提供参考。【Purpose/significance】Information spreads quickly among users in microblog networks which makes microblogs a gathering place for large amount of public opinions.During the process,psychological factors have an important impact on public opinions.【Method/process】Current researches on the influence of psychological factors on the evolution of public opinion are mainly through qualitative description,and there are few quantitative models considering psychological factors.Based on the results of psychological research,this paper constructs a public opinion evolution model of microblog network introducing the anti-conformity combined with the propagation characteristics of information and opinion in microblogs.【Result/conclusion】Results show that anti-conformity and information transmission rate play an important role in the polarization of public opinion.When the transmission rate is small,its influence on the final state is more significant;when the transmission rate is large,the influence of anti-conformity parameter on the final state is more significant.The proposed model can simulate the process of new things and new ideas,as well as the polarization process of ideas,and reflect more abundant results,which can provide references for the guidance and control of public opinion.

关 键 词：反从众心理 舆情演化 微博网络 信息传播 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]