转移支付宏观经济效应的区域差异性研究  

Study on the Regional Differences of Macroeconomic Effects of Transfer Payment

作　　者：王文甫[1] 王召卿 郭柃沂 WANG Wenfu;WANG Zhaoqing;GUO Lingyi(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;China Center for Special Economic Zone Research,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130 [2]深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2020年第6期38-49,共12页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国宏观经济不确定性测量、效应及其传导机制研究”(18BJL027);教育部人文规划项目“地方政府视角下经济结构失衡的理论与经验研究”(15YJA790061)。

摘　　要：在统筹推进稳增长、促改革、调结构的语境下,研究转移支付对经济增长的拉动作用、宏观经济效应的区域差异及其传导机制具有重要意义。为此,本文基于中国1995—2016年31个省、自治区、直辖市的数据,运用面板向量自回归模型实证分析了转移支付与地方政府投资、社会投资以及居民消费之间的关系。研究发现,转移支付对东部和中西部地区的政府投资、社会投资和居民消费都产生了正向促进作用,各变量在响应路径、波动程度及其累积效应方面呈现出明显的区域差异性,中央对东部地区转移支付的宏观经济效应总体上大于中西部地区。通过构建一个具有不同经济结构的两区域动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)对这种区域性差异进行解释,发现中央对地方转移支付的规则和地方政府支出外部性的不同是造成这种差异的重要原因。此外,各区域转移支付的产出乘数表明,东部地区的产出乘数高于中西部地区。Fiscal transfer payments not only fill the gap in financial resources and promote the balance of financial resources both vertically and horizontally,but also promote economic growth and macroeconomic stability by increasing government investment,social investment and household consumption.Based on panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 1995 to 2016,the paper applies panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model to make an empirical study the relationship between transfers and government investment,social investment,household consumption.The results show that the transfer payment has a positive effect on government investment,social investment and household consumption in both the Eastern region and the Midwest region.However,there are significant regional heterogeneity in terms of response path,impulse strength and cumulative effects,and the macroeconomic effects of transfer payment to the Eastern region is greater than Midwest region on the whole.Then this paper explains the regional difference by constructing a two-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different economic structures.The result demonstrates that,the transfer payment rules and externalities of government expenditure are the important reasons for the difference.Through the output multiplier analysis of transfer payments,we find that the output multiplier in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions.The conclusion of this paper contains policy implications of improving the level and efficiency of public service supply in central and western China.

关 键 词：转移支付 宏观经济效应 政府投资 社会投资 居民消费 区域差异 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]