Impacts of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ Global Warming on Runoff of Three Inland Rivers in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China  

作　　者：Yujie WANG Yong WANG Hongmei XU 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044 [2]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044 [3]Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing Meteorological Service,Chongqing 401147 [4]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2020年第5期1082-1095,共14页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606302 and SQ2018YFE010367);China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Project(CCSF201924)。

摘　　要：Basin-scale projections of river runoff at different warming levels provide useful information for climate change adaptation. In this study, we investigated changes in the projected climate and simulated runoff under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming of three inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor: the Shiyang River(SYR), the Heihe River(HHR),and the Shule River(SLR). The change in climate was projected based on five global climate models(GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways(RCPs), and the change in runoff was simulated based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) hydrological model. Furthermore, the uncertainties in projected climate change and simulated runoff constrained by the GCMs and RCPs were quantified. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period(1976–2005), there is a 1.42–1.54℃ increase in annual air temperature and 4%–12% increase in annual mean precipitation in the three river basins under 1.5℃ global warming, while there is a 2.09–2.36℃ increase in annual air temperature and 5%–11% increase in annual mean precipitation under 2.0℃ global warming. The simulated annual runoff of the SYR decreases by 4% under 1.5℃ global warming, that of the HHR decreases by 3% and 4%, while that of the SLR increases considerably by 10% and 11% under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming, respectively. The additional 0.5℃ global warming results in an annual air temperature increase of 0.67–0.82℃, a change of -1% to 1% in annual mean precipitation, and a change of -1% to 5% in simulated runoff. The simulated annual runoff has greater uncertainty. The simulations indicate substantial and consistent warming in autumn and winter in the three basins, relatively drier summer and autumn in the SYR and HHR basins, and a relatively drier autumn in the SLR basin. The simulated monthly runoff shows more complex changes with large uncertainties constrained mainly by the GCMs.

关 键 词：climate change RUNOFF Shiyang River(SYR) Heihe River(HHR) Shule River(SLR) 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333[天文地球—水文科学]