政府债务、货币政策冲击与宏观经济波动——基于DSGE模型的分析  

Government Debt,Monetary Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:An Analysis Based on the DSGE Model

作　　者：张雪莹[1] 王聪聪 向丽锦 Zhang Xueying;Wang Congcong;Xiang Lijin

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2020年第10期5-16,70,共13页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“政府债务对货币政策的影响——基于利率传导渠道的研究”(71573155);国家社科基金重点项目“我国银行业政府或有债务风险及其财政成本研究”(17AJY024);“泰山学者”专项工程经费(tsqn201909135);山东省高等学校青创人才引育计划(金融制度与实体经济高质量发展)的资助。

摘　　要：近些年来,随着政府债务规模的扩大及政府债务管理政策独立性的增强,政府债务因素对货币政策效果有何影响引起理论界和决策部门的广泛关注。本文在经典新凯恩斯动态一般均衡模型中引入政府债务规模变量,刻画政府预算约束及前瞻性财政政策规则,深入分析政府债务规模的变动会如何改变宏观经济动态及货币政策效果。模型数值模拟结果显示:不同政府债务规模及不同的财政政策债务反应系数的情况下,面对货币政策冲击,主要宏观经济变量的响应路径及其波动程度存在显著差别。这意味着中央银行在制定货币政策时,要充分考虑政府债务规模以及财政政策反应对货币政策效果产生的影响。In recent years,with the expansion of the scale of government debt and the enhancement of the independence of government debt management policies,the influence of government debt factors on the effects of monetary policy has attracted widespread attention from theorists and policy-making departments.This paper introduces the variable of government debt scale into the classic New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model,characterizes government budget constraints and forward-looking fiscal policy rules,and deeply analyzes how changes in the scale of government debt will change the macroeconomic dynamics and the effect of monetary policy.The numerical simulation results of the model show that with different government debt scales and different fiscal policy debt response coefficients,in the face of monetary policy shocks,there are significant differences in the response paths and volatility of major macroeconomic variables.This means that when the central bank formulates monetary policy,it must fully consider the size of government debt and the impact of fiscal policy responses on the effects of monetary policy.

关 键 词：政府债务 货币政策效果 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F224