外部冲击下的经济金融系统稳定与调控策略  

Economic and Financial Stability and Regulation Strategies under External Shocks

作　　者：纪飞峰[1,2] 于军党 Ji Feifeng;Yu Jundang(Research Institute of China Development Bank;China Society of Economic Reform;Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences)

机构地区：[1]国家开发银行研究院 [2]中国经济体制改革研究会 [3]中国财政科学研究院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2020年第5期119-131,136,共14页Peace and Development

摘　　要：根据控制理论,合理的宏观货币调控可以校正系统传递函数,提高系统稳定性,并使得经济体在最大潜在增长率附近稳定运行。为了避免经济金融系统失稳,一方面需要优化经济体结构,另一方面宏观调控要以价格为主要反馈信号,并确保价格信号的准确性。根据控制理论的抗干扰理论,应对短期外部冲击可以采取刺激措施。但应对长期影响,则应保持债务成本与经济增速的平衡。面对新冠疫情,我国短期可采取金融刺激手段;但全球疫情持续不退,国际政治经济格局发生较大变化,宏观调控要根据价格信号的反馈来及时调整,尤其要防止企业炒房再度加杠杆。同时,应通过加大开放力度、发展数字经济、推动乡村振兴等措施,调整并优化系统结构,确保我国经济金融系统在新形势下的稳定高效运行。According to the control theory,rational macro-monetary control can correct the transfer function of the system,improve stability of the system,and enable the economy to operate stably around the maximum potential growth rate.To avoid economic and financial instability,efforts have to be made to optimize the economic structure on the one hand,and price should be taken as the main feedback signal in macroscopic adjustment and control,and the accuracy of price signals should be ensured on the other.According to the anti-interference theory of the control theory,stimulus measures may be taken to deal with short-term external shocks.Whereas,in dealing with long-term impacts,a balance of the cost of debt with economic growth should be kept.Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic,short-term financial stimulus could be used in China.But in the face of the unabated global epidemic and major changes in international political and economic landscape,macr oscopic adjustment and control should pay attention to the feedback of price signals in order to make timely adjustment,and particularly prevent enterprises from adding leverage to real estate speculation again.Meanwhile,efforts should be made to ensure the stable and efficient operation of China’s economic and financial system under the new situation by further opening up,developing digital economy,promoting rural revitalization and other programs,and adjusting and optimizing the system structure.

关 键 词：债务 周期 稳定 资源配置 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]