基于SWOT-云物元理论的城市配电网发展形态评估方法  

Evaluation Based on Cloud Matter Element Theory for the Development Form of Urban Distribution Network

作　　者：郭铭群 赖清平 卢杰 王智冬 彭冬 赵朗 于海泳 GUO Mingqun;LAI Qingping;LU Jie;WANG Zhidong;PENG Dong;ZHAO Lang;YU Haiyong(State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;State Grid Yueyang Power Supply Conpany,Yueyang 414000,Hunan Province,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京市102209 [2]国网湖南岳阳供电公司,湖南省岳阳市414000 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《电力建设》2020年第11期71-77,共7页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目“考虑发展路径时空差异的投资风险量化及控制技术研究项目”(5216A018000M)。

摘　　要：国家电网有限公司将"具有中国特色国际领先的能源互联网企业"作为战略目标,提出"不断提升绿色电气化水平"和"推动能源互联互通"等重要举措,使得具有不同经济发展路径和能源禀赋约束的城市配电网呈现出新一轮跨越式、差异化发展,研究预判这种发展形态变得十分迫切。为此,采用SWOT(strengths weaknesses opportunities threats)技术分析了表征城市配电网运行状况和未来格局特征的相关指标,从供电质量、电网结构、装备水平等7个方面建立评估指标体系,再利用云物元理论在配电网评估中的优点,基于形态划分标准将目标划分为示范、高级、中级、低级与初级5个形态,最后按照配电网实际发展水平由高到低选取3个代表性城市北京、苏州与衡水进行实证分析。结果表明,苏州、北京配电网同处于示范形态,但后者绿色电能消纳能力弱于前者;衡水配电网各项指标均较落后,处于中级形态。State Grid Corporation of China takes "a leading international energy internet company with Chinese characteristics" as its strategic goal,and proposes important measures such as "continuously improving the level of green electrification" and "promoting energy interconnection" to enable cities with different economic development paths and energy endowment constraints.The distribution network presents a new round of leaping and differentiated development,and it is urgent to study and predict this development form.To this end,this paper uses SWOT technology to analyze the relevant indicators that characterize the operation status of the urban distribution network and the characteristics of the future pattern.An evaluation index system is established from 7 aspects such as power supply quality,grid structure,and equipment level,and then the advantages of the cloud matter element theory is used in the distribution grid assessment.The target is divided into five forms:demonstration,high-level,intermediate,low-level,and primary according to the form classification standard.Finally,three representative cities,Beijing,Suzhou and Hengshui are selected according to the actual development level of the distribution networks from high to low.The results show that the distribution networks of Suzhou and Beijing are both in a demonstration form,but the latter’s green power accommodation is weaker than the former,and all indicators of the Hengshui distribution network are lagging behind and in an intermediate form.

关 键 词：SWOT-云物元理论 城市配电网 发展形态 评估应用 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]