基于HFACS的货车交通事故致因研究  

Causal Factors of Truck Traffic Accidents Based on HFACS Model

作　　者：郑世博 樊运晓[1] 李振明[2] ZHENG Shibo;FAN Yunxiao;LI Zhenming(School of Engineering&Technology,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing100083,China;Department of Safety Science and Engineering,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou310023,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京100083 [2]浙江工业大学安全科学与工程系,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2020年第6期133-139,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51674224)。

摘　　要：为深入研究我国货车运输行业交通事故的致因因素,探究各因素的重要性以及它们之间的关系,以调研获得的201起货车交通事故为样本,基于人因分析和分类系统(HFACS)模型、网络层次分析法以及卡方检验和让步比分析,对货车交通事故的致因因素进行了频率分析和相关性分析,并计算各层级各项致因因素的权重。结果表明:HFACS模型中的相邻层级之间共有16对致因因素存在关联关系,关联强度OR值在4.779~63.628之间;通过致因因素的权重计算显示,货运企业安全氛围未形成、风险管理政策不足、奖惩政策不足、驾驶员资源管理不当、车辆质量管理不当在不良的组织管理层级中权重较高是导致货车交通事故的深层原因,容易引起货运企业未纠正已知错误、企业监督违规和企业监督不到位等在不安全的监督行为层级中权重较高的致因因素的产生,同时也是影响不安全行为的前提条件层级中工具技术、能力局限和不良心理状态权重较高的主要因素,最终导致驾驶员的不安全行为,其中偶然性违章和习惯性违章权重较高最为突出。In order to deeply study the causal factors of traffic accidents in the trucking industry in China,and to explore the importance of each factor and the relationship between them,taking 201truck traffic accidents obtained from the survey as samples,based on Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)model,Analytic Network Process(ANP),Chi-square test and Odds Ratio(OR)analysis,this paper conducts frequency analysis and correlation analysis of the causal factors of truck traffic accidents,and calculates the weights of various causal factors at each level.The results are as follows:There are a total of 16pairs of causal factors between adjacent levels in the HFACS model;the ORvalue of the correlation strength is between 4.779and 63.628;in addition,the weight calculation of causal factors show that the safety atmosphere of the freight company has not been formed,the risk management and rewards and punishment policies are insufficient,and the driver resources and the vehicle quality management are not properly managed;the high weights of those factors in the management level of the organization is the underlying cause of the accident and they tend to cause the occurrence of causal factors with high weights in the level of unsafe supervision behavior,such as freight companies failing to correct known errors,company supervision violations,and company inadequate supervision behaviors,and they are also the main factors affecting the causal factors with high weights in the levels of unsafe behavior prerequisite including tool technology,ability limitation and bad mental state,which ultimately leads to unsafe behavior of drivers,among which accidental violations and habitual violations with high weights are the most prominent.

关 键 词：货车交通事故 致因因素 人因分析和分类系统(HFACS) 卡方检验 让步比(OR)分析 网络层次分析法(ANP) 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]