黑龙江省农业碳排放动态变化影响因素分析  

Research on Affecting Factors Decomposition of Agricultural CO2 Emission in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：孟军[1] 范婷婷 MENG Jun;FAN Tingting(College of Arts and Sciences,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150000,China;Engineering College,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学文理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《生态经济》2020年第12期34-39,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省供给侧粮食生产结构优化分析”(16JYB17);黑龙江省教育厅成果研发培育项目“五常稻米规模化有机种植技术体系研究及示范”(TSTAU-C2018009)。

摘　　要：测算黑龙江省农业CO2排放量,并对其时空格局变化与影响因素进行分析,为实现农业低碳高质量发展提供科学依据。根据2000—2017年黑龙江省农业数据,运用改进的碳排系数法估算农业CO2排放量并通过LMDI分解模型分析农业生产效率、生产结构、经济水平和劳动力规模对农业碳排放的影响。结果表明,黑龙江省农业CO2排放量整体呈现上升趋势,年均增长率为4.78%,CO2排放强度呈现上升趋势,年均增长率为1.98%,但近五年环比增速均有所下降;黑龙江省农业碳源以灌溉为主,其年均占比为31.43%,其次是柴油;化肥、农药、柴油、灌溉碳排放量均呈上升趋势;黑龙江省农业碳排放增加的最主要影响因素是农业经济水平,其次是农业生产结构,抑制农业碳排放的主要影响因素是农业生产效率,其次是农业劳动力规模。为保证黑龙江省农业低碳高质量发展,需推广农业科技使用、优化农业生产结构、精简务农人口。By calculating the agricultural CO2 emissions and analyzing its spatial and temporal pattern changes and influencing factors in Heilongjiang Province,it can provide a scientific basis for achieving low-carbon and high-quality agricultural development.According to the agricultural data of Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2017,use the improved carbon emission coefficient method to estimate agricultural CO2 emissions.Furthermore,the LMDI decomposition model was used to analyze the impact of agricultural production efficiency,production structure,economic level,and labor scale on agricultural carbon emissions.The results indicated that amount of agricultural CO2 emissions in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 4.78%,and the intensity of CO2 emissions showed an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 1.98%,but the sequential growth rate of both of them decreased in the past five years;Irrigation is the main source of agricultural carbon in Heilongjiang Province,which accounts for 31.43%,followed by diesel oil;The carbon emissions from fertilizers,pesticides,diesel,and irrigation all showed an upward trend;The main factor affecting the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province is the level of agricultural economy,followed by the structure of agricultural production;And the main factor that restrains agricultural carbon emissions is agricultural production efficiency,followed by the scale of agricultural labor.In order to ensure the low-carbon and high-quality development of agriculture in Heilongjiang Province,it is necessary to promote the use of agricultural science and technology,optimize the agricultural structure,and streamline the agricultural population.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 农业碳排放 LMDI模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]