增长动因与贸易潜力——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线支点国家文化产品贸易的实证分析  

Growth Motivation and Trade Potential:An Empirical Analysis of China’s Cultural Goods Trade to Countries Along the Belt and Road

作　　者：冯千驹 FENG Qianju(Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study,UCAS,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310063)

机构地区：[1]国科大杭州高等研究院,浙江杭州310063

出　　处：《绍兴文理学院学报》2020年第11期92-100,共9页Journal of Shaoxing University

基　　金：国家社科基金“中国与‘一带一路’沿线支点国家文化产业优先合作领域的战略选择研究”(16BXW063)。

摘　　要：基于2003—2015年贸易数据,从贸易规模、空间布局和商品结构三个维度,分析中国与“一带一路”沿线支点国家文化贸易现状。构建随机前沿引力模型,剖析文化产品贸易的影响因素及增长动因。从国家和产品两个层面,预测中国对支点国家文化产品出口潜力。结果表明,近五年中国向英国、德国、韩国等国的文化产品出口潜力大,向埃及和希腊的出口潜力较小。商品方面,文化设计类商品出口潜力最大,工艺品类商品出口增幅最快,而视听媒体类商品的出口潜力较小、增速较慢。据此提出了推进“一带一路”文化贸易高质量发展的对策建议。Based on the trade data of 2003-2015,this paper analyzes the trade status and growth motivation between China and the fulcrum countries of One Belt and One Road of cultural goods trade from the dimensions of trade scale,geographical space and commodity structure.This paper empirically analyzes the main factors affecting trade development by formulating a stochastic frontier gravity model.It attempts to predict the export potential of cultural goods trade between China and the fulcrum countries from the national and product levels.The research shows that in the past five years China has had a greater potential in the cultural products exporting to such countries as the United Kingdom,Germany and South Korea then that to Egypt and Greece.In terms of commodities,cultural design goods have the greatest export potential,the export of arts and crafts products has the fastest growth,and the export potential of audio-visual media products is relatively small with a slow growth rate.On this basis,the countermeasures against and suggestions for promoting the high-quality development of“the Belt and Road”cultural trade are put forward.

关 键 词：一带一路 支点国家 文化产品贸易 出口潜力 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]