基于社会网络分析的城市综合管廊安全风险网络构建及评价  

Construction and evaluation of the safety risk factors of the urban utility tunnel based on the social network analysis

作　　者：陈文强[1] 李艳飞[1] 于静[1] CHEN Wen-qiang;LI Yan-fei;YU Jing(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第5期1652-1660,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：天津市教委科研计划项目(2017SK124)。

摘　　要：目前有关城市综合管廊的风险评价大多局限于单一灾种视角,鲜见从多灾种角度来分析各类灾害风险因素及各风险因素间的相互关系。系统考虑城市综合管廊运营过程中火灾、爆炸、坍塌、内涝、污染、泄漏、服务中断等事故,从廊体、管线、环境和人为角度建立城市综合管廊风险因素集,运用社会网络分析(SNA)构建城市综合管廊安全风险因素1-模网模型(安全风险因素之间的关系网络)和2-模网模型(安全风险因素与安全事故之间的关系网络),并通过1-模网的块模型、整体网络密度及2-模网的中心度识别核心安全风险因素,通过1-模网的线中间中心度确定关键关系;对核心安全风险因素和关键关系进行控制,并对风险控制效果进行检测。结果表明:外围施工、廊体结构破坏、管材质量、廊体结构设计为城市综合管廊的核心安全风险因素;风险管控中应重点关注的关键关系为廊体结构腐蚀→管道腐蚀和道路荷载增大→地质环境变化;靶向干预核心安全风险因素并切断关键关系,有助于高效阻断部分风险在网络中的传导。The present paper is to devote itself to establishing the safety risk factors of utility tunnel construction from the perspective of the pipeline layout,the environment choice and the human security consideration. To satisfy the above mentioned needs,we have built up Model One Network of the risk factors and Model Two Network of the risk factors involving accidents for the utility tunnel with the method of the social network. However,as is known,at present,the safety risk analysis of the utility tunnels has been mainly restricted to the sphere of the single-factor hazards,which is disregarded of the various safety risk factors and the interactions between or among the safety risk factors involved systematically. And,therefore,the current safety risk analysis of the utility tunnels fails to take into account the multiplicity of the factors,like the accidents caused by the fire,explosion,collapse,internal helium,pollution,leakage,service interruption,etc. in the process of the utility tunnels under way to be studied in this paper. What is more,the critical safety risk factors are also to be identified by mode-1 network block model,mode-1 network overall network density and mode-2 network centrality,for such critical interaction factors have to be identified and determined through mode-1 network line of itself. And,last of all,it is also necessary to control the critical safety risk factors and critical interactive factors so as to rebuild mode-1 network. This is because of the fact the risk control effect can only be detected by mode-1 network by calculating and working out the overall network density,the network centralization index,the clustering coefficient and the path length.And,therefore,the results of our study show that the external construction,the structure damage of the corridor,the quality of the pipe and the design of the corridor structure can all constitute the critical safety risk factors of the entire utility tunnel. The conditions of the corrosion of the corridor structure→and that of pipeline a

关 键 词：公共安全 综合管廊 安全风险 社会网络分析 风险控制 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]