产能过剩、地方政府干预与商业银行不良贷款——基于省际面板数据的实证  

Overcapacity,Local Government Intervention and Non-performing Loans of Commercial Banks——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：周天芸[1] ZHOU Tian-yun(International School of Business&Finance,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学金融学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第6期146-162,共17页Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国农村普惠金融的现实基础、困境与政策体系研究”(17BJY123)。

摘　　要：基于我国供给侧改革过程中的“产能过剩”背景,纳入地方政府干预的影响,探讨2009年以来新一轮不良贷款的成因,分析产能过剩与不良贷款之间的传导机制,并采用2009—2016年的省际面板数据,建立动态面板模型并采用差分的广义矩估计,实证检验造成我国新一轮不良贷款的因素,检验产能过剩与不良贷款之间的关系,结果表明产能过剩与商业银行不良贷款率呈正向变动,地方政府干预仍然是2009年后新一轮不良贷款的重要原因;我国产能过剩呈现大范围、多行业的特征,系统性金融风险集聚。为避免风险,消除隐患,必须健全市场退出渠道,增强商业银行信贷审批决策环节的独立性,构建多元化的地方官员政绩考核指标体系。Based on the background of“overcapacity”in China's supply side reform,taking into account the influence of local government intervention,this paper 1)explores the causes of a new round of non-performing loans since 2009;2)analyzes the transmission mechanism between overcapacity and non-performing loans;3)employs the provincial panel data(2009-2016)to establish a dynamic panel model and take the generalized moment estimation of difference for empirically testing the new round of non-performing loans in China,and the relationship between overcapacity and non-performing loans.The findings tell 1)overcapacity and the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks bear positive changes,and local intervention has been an important reason behind the new round of non-performing loans since 2009;2)China's overcapacity is featured with large-scale,multi-industry,and systemic financial risk concentration.In order to avoid risks and eliminate hidden dangers,it is necessary to improve the market exit channels,enhance the independence of credit approval decision-making links of commercial banks,and build a diversified performance evaluation index system for local officials,the paper points out in conclusion.

关 键 词：不良贷款 商业银行 产能过剩 地方政府干预 金融风险 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F832.332