论欧盟差异性去一体化与后脱欧时代的一体化走向  

An Analysis of EU Differentiated Disintegration and Integration Trends in the Post-Brexit Era

作　　者：李明明[1] LI Mingming

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2020年第5期72-89,I0004,共19页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：2019年国家社会科学基金项目“欧亚互联互通‘瓶颈地带’的机制博弈与中国应对研究”(项目编号:19BGJ041)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在分析现有的关于欧洲一体化路径演变概念的基础上,本文探讨了英国正式脱欧后欧洲一体化的未来走向。西方学者指出,英国脱欧导致了欧盟“差异性去一体化”的结果。而相关案例分析和实证调查数据表明,欧盟正在设法防止更多的“差异性去一体化”的发生。欧盟关于2025年一体化场景的设想涵盖了多种演变路径和未来走向的可能。欧洲一体化的严重不确定性标志着欧盟正处于发展的十字路口,需要进行深入反思和重新调整。Based on an analysis of the current concepts about the evolution of European integration,this article explores the trends of European integration after Brexit.The Western scholars point out that Brexit has led to the EU’s differentiated disintegration.But case studies and survey data show that the EU is attempting to prevent the emergence of more differentiated disintegration.The EU has presented 5 scenarios for how the EU would evolve by 2025,including a multiple of possibilities for the EU’s evolution routes and the future trends of European integration.The uncertainties that the European integration is confronted with signal that the EU is at a crossroads and in-depth reflection and overall planning are necessary for its future development.

关 键 词：欧洲一体化 “差异性去一体化” 后脱欧时代 疑欧主义 

分 类 号：D814.1[政治法律—国际关系] D756.1[政治法律—政治学]