全口径人民币有效汇率测算:增加值与传统贸易视角  

Full-industry RMB EER Measurement:Value Added and Traditional Trade Perspective

作　　者：倪淑慧 杨盼盼[1] Ni Shuhui;Yang Panpan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第10期76-90,M0003,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察——基于GVC视角的分析”(项目编号:71503263)的资助。

摘　　要：为更好地厘清传统人民币有效汇率和增加值人民币有效汇率的差异,考察不同行业参与全球贸易的异质性,文章基于同一口径、同一方法和同一数据来源测算并比较了加总情形以及全口径行业传统和增加值人民币有效汇率。测算结果显示,加总情形下两种人民币实际有效汇率差异很小,以往文献中的差异可能是由价格指数差异或其他干扰项引起的。分行业情形有两个特征,一是增加值测算行业的有效汇率变动幅度更加平滑,二是服务业两种有效汇率的差异显著大于制造业。进一步,服务业的差异主要体现在与货物贸易相关的服务业和知识密集型商业服务业上,表现为与货物贸易相关的服务业增加值有效汇率升值幅度大于传统方法,这是因为增加值方法调升了新兴市场货币的权重,而新兴市场货币的贬值使得这类服务业增加值有效汇率相对走强;知识密集型服务业则正好相反,主要是因为这类服务业的增加值主要由美国等发达国家获取,强势美元背景下这类服务业增加值有效汇率相对走弱。由此可见,不同服务业参与增加值贸易的方式以及增加值在各贸易国家之间的分配存在显著差异。在服务业对外开放背景下,上述分析和结论对衡量服务业对外竞争力具有重要意义。In order to better clarify the differences between traditional and added-value RMB Effective Exchange Rates(EER)and to examine the heterogeneity of different industries’participation in global trade,this paper calculates the aggregate and sub-industry RMB EER both of traditional and added-value view in the same method and data source.The results show that there is little difference between those two perspectives of RMB EER under the aggregate situation.The significant difference in previous literature may be caused by the price index difference or other interference items.There are two characteristics in sub-industry situation.The first one is that the change range of value-added industrial EER is smoother.The other is that the difference between these two EER in service industry is significantly greater than that of manufacturing industry.Furthermore,the differences in services industry are mainly reflected in goods trade-related and knowledge-intensive commercial services,which show that the value-added EER of goods trade-related services is higher than that of traditional methods.The value-added method has increased the weight of emerging market currencies,and the depreciation of these currency makes the value-added EER of such services industry relatively stronger.While EER of Knowledge-intensive Services is on the contrary,mainly because the value-added of such services is mainly obtained by developed countries such as the United States,and the EER of such services is relatively weak under the strong dollar background.This shows that there are significant differences in the services industry participating in valueadded trade and the distribution of value-added among trading countries.Under the background of the Opening Up of service industry,the above analysis and conclusions are of great significance to measure the external competitiveness of service industry.

关 键 词：全口径 增加值有效汇率 传统有效汇率 服务业 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]