中国茶叶出口市场结构变化分析——基于贸易引力模型  

Analysis on the Structural Changes of China’s Tea Export Market——Based on the Trade Gravitation Model

作　　者：李道和[1] 刘诗羽 池泽新[2] Li Daohe;Liu Shiyu;Chi Zexin(College of Humanities and Public Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045;College of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学人文与公共管理学院,南昌330045 [2]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第8期64-72,共9页Forestry Economics

基　　金：江西省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金“江西省茶叶产业经济岗位专家项目”(编号:JXARS-02)。

摘　　要：文章通过对2000~2019年间中国对亚洲、欧洲、非洲、美洲4个区域共涉及50个国家的茶叶出口贸易数据进行横向对比与实证分析,发现20年间中国茶叶出口量增长了60.96%,出口额增长了482%,中国茶叶出口贸易表现出明显的上升态势。从茶叶出口市场结构来看,非洲仍然是中国茶叶出口的最大市场,其次是欧盟。但近年来欧盟、日本等传统中国茶叶出口市场的贸易量在中国茶叶出口总量中所占比例逐年降低,而中国与东盟等国的茶叶贸易已成为新增长点。因此,探讨影响中国茶叶出口市场结构变化的相关因素对于中国茶叶出口增长具有重要意义。文章构建贸易引力模型展开进一步分析,结果表明:贸易国和中国的实际GDP、中国茶叶产量对中国茶叶出口贸易有显著的正向影响;而贸易双方地理距离、贸易国人均GDP、是否提高(改变)茶叶农残限量标准对其有显著的负向影响。因此提出建议:在生产环节应健全茶叶标准化质量监控体系,提升茶叶品质以应对贸易壁垒;同时应积极研发茶叶新品种,丰富茶叶产品出口结构,以满足国际市场多样化需求;加快建立国家间互惠机制,维持友好睦邻关系,提升跨国交通运输能力,进一步开拓茶叶新兴出口市场,以助力中国茶叶出口贸易发展。Based on the horizontal comparison and empirical analysis of China’s tea export trade data to Asia,Europe,Africa and America,involving 50 countries from 2000 to 2019,this paper finds that the export volume of tea has increased by 60.96%and the export volume has increased by 482%in the past 20 years,China’s tea export trade shows an obvious upward trend.From the perspective of export market structure,Africa is still the largest market for China’s tea export,followed by the EU.However,the trade volume of China’s traditional tea export markets,such as Japan and EU,has been decreasing year by year in the proportion of China’s tea export total volume,while the tea trade between China and ASEAN countries has become a new growth point over the past few years.Obviously,it is of crucial importance for China’s tea export growth to explore the relevant factors that affect the structure change of China’s tea export market.This paper constructs a trade gravity model and the results indicate that:the GDP of the trading countries and China,the tea production in China have significant positive effects on China’s tea export.The geographical distance and the per capita GDP of the trading countries,whether the trading countries raise or change the limit standard of pesticide residues in tea has a significant negative impact on it.In order to improve the growth of China’s tea export trade,this paper advances some proposals that the quality control system of tea standardization should be improved in the production process to combat the international trade barrier.At the same time,we should develop new tea varieties actively and enrich the export structure of tea products to meet the diversified needs of the target market.As well as establishing a reciprocal mechanism between countries,improve the transnational transportation network,and further develop the emerging export market of tea.

关 键 词：贸易引力模型 面板数据 茶叶出口 市场结构 

分 类 号：F752.69[经济管理—国际贸易] F762.2[经济管理—产业经济]