基于Biomod2组合模型预测青藏高原特有属扇穗茅属物种的潜在分布  

Potential Distribution of Littledalea,an Endemic Genus from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Predicted by Biomod2 Models

作　　者：刘涛 刘玉萍[2,3] 吕婷[1,4] 梁瑞芳 刘峰[2,3] 马子兰 周勇辉 陈志 苏旭 LIU Tao;LIU Yu-ping;LV Ting;LIANG Rui-fang;LIU Feng;MA Zi-lan;ZHOU Yong-hui;CHEN Zhi;SU Xu(School of Geography,Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;Key Laboratory of Medicinal Animal and Plant Resources of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Qinghai Province,Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;School of Life Science,Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;Key Laboratory of Education Ministry of Earth Surface Processes and Ecological Conservation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;Ganzhou City Flower Research Institute, Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province 341000, China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]青海师范大学青海省青藏高原药用动植物资源重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [3]青海师范大学生命科学学院,青海西宁810008 [4]青藏高原地表过程与生态保育教育部重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [5]赣州市花卉研究所,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《草地学报》2020年第6期1650-1656,共7页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31960052,41761009);青海省自然科学基金项目(2019-ZJ-7011);科技基础资源调查专项项目(2017FY100202-02);中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目(2019-1-4);青海省青藏高原药用动植物资源重点实验室项目(2020-ZJ-Y40)共同资助。

摘　　要：为研究扇穗茅属(Littledalea)在青藏高的分布区及影响其分布范围的因子,本研究通过野外采样,利用Biomod2组合模型预测扇穗茅属3个物种(寡穗茅(Littledalea przevalskyi),藏扇穗茅(Littledalea tibetica),扇穗茅(Littledalea racemosa))地理分布格局及限制因子。研究结果表明:扇穗茅(L.racemosa)潜在适生区位于西藏自治区南部、四川西南部,分布面积最大(17.792万km2);藏扇穗茅(L.tibetica)适生区面积最小(9.019万km2),位于青海省南部、西藏自治区北部;寡穗茅(L.przevalskyi)分布于甘肃省西南部、青海省北部(15.783万km2)。当前生境环境气候影响扇穗茅属物种分布相对重要性较高的生态因子有7个,海拔(Altitude)因子影响最高。相比该属当前物种潜在分布,在未来2种温室气体排放情景下(2050年和2100年、RCP4.5和RCP8.5),寡穗茅和扇穗茅适生区面积显著增加,特别是藏北高原那曲及玉树等地,而藏扇穗茅适生区整体缩小,未来气候变化可能对该属藏扇穗茅潜在分布的威胁最大。In order to explore the potential distribution and influenceable factors of Littledalea in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,on the basis of our field investigation,we used Biomod2 ensemble models to predicate the distribution range and limited factors of three species of Littledalea(L.racemosa,L.tibetica and L.przevalskyi).The results showed that the potential distribution range of L.racemosa was the biggest at 177920 km2,concentrated in southwestern Sichuan,northern Tibet.L.tibetica was the minimum at 90190 km2,concentrated in southern Qinghai and northern Tibet.L.przevalskyi concentrated in southwestern Gansu and northern Qinghai was about 157830 km2.There were seven factors affected potential distribution of Littledalea,altitude was the principal factor.L.przevalskyi and L.racemosa should overspread than current distribution in the two kind of temperature increase simulation scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)especially in the Northern Tibetan Plateau and Yushu Qinghai,but it should be shrinkage of total range of L.tibetica,its potential distribution appears in the most threaten of Littledalea in the future.

关 键 词：扇穗茅属 生态位模型 物种分布 潜在适生区 

分 类 号：Q948.13[生物学—植物学]