中国人口与宏观经济问题研究综述  

A Review of Studies on China's Population and Macroeconomics Issues

作　　者：宋书杰[1] 陆旸[2] Song Shujie;Lu Yang(Public Administration School,Northwest University;Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Acad⁃emy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《人口研究》2020年第6期114-125,共12页Population Research

摘　　要：生育率、人口增长和经济发展之间的关系十分复杂。从现有中国人口学相关研究中不难发现,人口学的观点和趋势判断与中国当时的经济社会发展水平密切相关。该领域最初的研究主要围绕着人口与经济社会之间的相互关系展开,此后,学者们逐渐发现人口结构而非人口总量才是影响经济增长的主要因素,而其中人口红利又与人口转型、生育率变化,甚至独生子女政策紧密联系在一起。此外,随着经济学家开始将人口问题引入宏观经济学分析框架,近些年还出现了人口与宏观经济和金融问题的交叉研究成果。为此,将人口与宏观经济问题的研究按不同认识阶段进行归纳和述评,并给出未来可能的研究方向。Fertility rate,population growth,and economic development are usually causally corre⁃lated with complex relationships among each other.The mainstream academic point of views towards demography from literature highly depend on the economic development level at that time.In the early time,the literature mainly focused on the interrelationship between population and economic develop⁃ment.After the 1990s,a growing number of scholars believed that demographic structure,rather than population size,is more important for economic growth.Demographic dividend is also correlated with demographic transition,fertility rate,and even the one-child policy.In addition,as economists began to introduce population issues into the framework of macroeconomic,lots of interdisciplinary research e⁃merged in recent years.In this paper,population and macroeconomic issues are summarized according to different stages of research,and the potential research directions are given in the end.

关 键 词：总和生育率 生育政策 人口红利 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]