齐齐哈尔市2009-2018年乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测  

Analysis of epidemic characteristics and prediction of hepatitis B in Qiqihar City from 2009 to 2018

作　　者：陈红[1] 杜红梅[1] 郭梦岩[1] 汪滢[1] 姜秋蕾 施京利[1] CHEN Hong;DU Hong-mei;GUO Meng-yan;WANG Ying;JIANG Qiu-lei;SHI Jing-li(Qiqihar Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qiqihar,Heilongjiang 161000,China)

机构地区：[1]齐齐哈尔市疾病预防控制中心,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161000

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2020年第5期696-698,703,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

摘　　要：目的分析齐齐哈尔市2009—2018年乙型病毒性肝炎(以下简称乙肝)流行特征,预测未来两年乙肝发病情况,评价乙肝疫苗纳入免疫规划实施效果,为齐齐哈尔市制定有针对性的乙肝防控措施提供科学依据和参考。方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统乙肝发病数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析齐齐哈尔市2009-2018年乙肝流行病学特征,发病率的比较采用χ~2检验。结果齐齐哈尔市2009-2018年共报告乙肝17 974例,死亡20例,总发病率为32.95/10万,死亡率为0.04/10万。报告发病率从2009年的37.87/10万下降到2018年的23.53/10万,乙肝发病率呈现出逐年下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(χ^2=90.0,P<0.05)。年龄分布呈现出正偏态分布特征,各年龄组发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=650.0,P<0.01)。男性发病多于女性,男女性别比为1.47∶1,男女发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=606.12,P<0.01)。农民发病比例最高(47.86%),以下依次为家务及待业人员(37.55%)、干部及离退人员(5.76%)、工人(4.38%)、学生(1.19%)和服务人员(0.82%),不同职业人群乙肝发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=28 635.2,P<0.01)。发病率居前三位的县区为讷河市(64.04/10万)、龙沙区(59.39/10万)和昂昂溪区(57.78/10万),各县区发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=10.676,P<0.05)。结论齐齐哈尔市乙肝发病呈逐年下降趋势,乙肝防控效果显著。加强青壮年和农民乙肝疫苗预防接种工作可进一步有效降低发病率。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis B in Qiqihar City of Heilongjiang province from 2009 to 2018, to predict the epidemic situation in the next two years, and to evaluate the implementation effects of hepatitis B vaccine included in immunization regulations. In order to provide scientific basis and reference for formulating targeted prevention and control measures of hepatitis B in Qiqihar. Methods The incidence data of hepatitis B in Chinese disease prevention and control information system were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Qiqihar City from 2009 to 2018 with descriptive epidemiological analysis method, chi-square test was used to compare the incidence rates. Results A total of 17974 cases of hepatitis B and 20 deaths were reported in Qiqihar from 2008 to 2017, for an overall incidence rate was 32.95/100000, and mortality rate was 0.04/100000. The reported incidence rate was decreased from 37.87/100000 in 2009 to 23.53/100000 in 2018. The incidence rate of hepatitis B showed a decreasing trend year by year, the difference was statistically significant( χ^2=90.0, P<0.05).The age distribution showed the characteristics of normal distribution, the difference of incidence rate between different age groups was statistically significant(χ^2=650.0, P<0.01). The incidence of male was more than that of female, the ratio of male to female was 1.47:1, and the difference was statistically significant(χ^2=606.12, P<0.01). Among all the cases, the highest incidence career group was farmers(47.86%), followed by unemployed(37.55%), cadres and retirees(5.76%), workers(4.38%), students(1.19%) and service personnel(0.82%), the difference of the incidence rate of hepatitis B between different career groups was statistically significant(χ^2=28635.2,P<0.01).Nehe City(64.04/100000), Longsha District(59.39/100000) and Angangxi District(57.78/100000) were the top three counties with the highest incidence rate, and the difference was statistically signif

关 键 词：乙型肝炎 流行特征 预测 

分 类 号：R512.62[医药卫生—内科学] R181.81[医药卫生—临床医学]