基于结构方程模型的雨天城市公交路段延误影响因素分析  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Delay in Urban Public Transport Section in Rainy Day Based on Structural Equation Model

作　　者：吴中[1] 吴季恒 吴琼[1] 杨海飞 WU Zhong;WU Jiheng;WU Qiong;YANG Haifei(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《贵州大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第6期97-103,共7页Journal of Guizhou University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71801080);江苏省博士后科研资助计划资助项目(2018K043B);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B200202068)。

摘　　要：降雨会对城市交通运行产生负面影响。路段作为城市路网的基本组成部分,在晴天和雨天会对公交车运行产生不同的影响。运用结构方程模型,对道路基本特征、交通管理与控制措施和环境条件三个方面的影响因素进行量化分析,建立了雨天公交运行特性与各影响因素的结构方程,揭示了雨天城市公交路段延误影响因素的内在关系。利用佛山市某线路公交车数据对路段模型进行了拟合、修正和优化,得到的各影响因素的路径系数。结果表明:环境条件是影响雨天城市公交路段运行的最显著因素,且环境条件中运行时段的影响程度大于其它自然因素。影响因素之间以及影响因素与行程车速之间的关系可为城市交通管理提供理论依据。Rainfall has a negative impact on urban transportation operations.As a basic part of the urban road network,road sections have different impacts on bus operation in sunny and rainy days.The structural equation model is used to quantify the influencing factors of the basic characteristics of roads,traffic management and control measures,environmental conditions,establishing the structural equations of rainy bus operation characteristics and various influencing factors,revealing the impact of urban bus delays and the internal relationship of factors on rainy days.Using the data of a certain bus line in Foshan City to modify and optimize the road section model,the comparison of the path coefficients of the various influencing factors shows that environmental conditions are the biggest factor affecting the operation of urban public transport sections on rainy days,and the influence of operating period in environmental conditions is greater than other natural factors.The relationship between the influencing factors and the relationship bwtween the factors and travel speed can provide theoretical basis for urban traffic management.

关 键 词：雨天交通 公交 城市路段 结构方程 行程车速 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]