基于SEM-Logit整合模型的旅游铁路交通出行分担率预测  

Share rate prediction of tourist railway transportation based on SEM-Logit integrated model

作　　者：仇智勇[1] 岳鑫 周建尧 段冉冉 QIU Zhiyong;YUE Xin;ZHOU Jianyao;DUAN Ranran(Institute of Transportation and Urban Planning&Design,China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610031,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]中国中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,交通与城市规划设计研究院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《山东交通学院学报》2020年第4期30-37,共8页Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1600900);国家自然科学基金项目(51678505);交通运输部科学研究院开放课题;贵州省交通运输厅科技项目(2018-321-026);中国中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司科技开发计划项目(KYY2019028(19-20))。

摘　　要：依托都江堰至四姑娘山山地轨道交通扶贫项目工程规划阶段的客流调查分析与预测,分析新建旅游铁路背景下的交通出行方式分担率预测方法。基于旅游铁路出行问卷调查数据,引入舒适性、观光性和便捷性等潜变量,构建结构方程模型(structural equation modeling,SEM)与离散选择(Logit)模型相结合的旅游铁路出行方式选择SEM-Logit模型,利用本地、外地两类游客的个人属性和旅游出行数据,结合2022年交通经济适应情况,预测得到2022年旅游铁路、旅游巴士和小汽车的分担率分别为43.52%、19.15%和37.33%。研究表明:提出的预测方法能够为提高旅游铁路客流预测的可靠性、推动旅游铁路规划的科学性提供支撑。Based on the investigation,analysis and forecast of passenger flow in the planning stage of the poverty alleviation project of Dujiangyan to Four Girls Mountain Rail Transit,this paper analyzes the prediction method of share rate of transportation modes under the background of the newly-built tourist railway.Based on the survey data of the travel questionnaire of the tourist railway,the potential variables such as ease,sightseeing and convenience are introduced,and the SEM-Logit model,the selection of the travel mode of the tourist railway combining the structural equation model(SEM)with the discrete choice(Logit)model,is established.Using the individual characteristics and travel data of local and outside tourists,combined with the economic and applicable situation of transportation in 2022,it is predicted that the share rate of tourist railways,tourist buses and cars in 2022 is 43.52%,19.15%and 37.33%respectively.The research shows that the proposed prediction method can provide support for improving the reliability of passenger flow prediction and promoting the scientific planning of tourist railways.

关 键 词：旅游铁路 交通方式 SEM-Logit 分担率 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] F532.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]