基于AHP-Shapley值的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担研究  

Research on Risk Sharing of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Based on AHP-Shapley Value

作　　者：王建波 张娜 王政权 黄文静 秦娜 WANG Jianbo;ZHANG Na;WANG Zhengquan;HUANG Wenjing;QIN Na(College of management engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,266000,Qingdao,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,青岛266000

出　　处：《北方工业大学学报》2020年第5期15-20,29,共7页Journal of North China University of Technology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目“基于生态学的大型工程项目融资风险管理体系研究”(ZR2011GL021);青岛市社科规划项目“青岛城市基础设施投融资体制创新研究”(QDSKL100403).

摘　　要：为了使城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担更加科学合理,本文首先利用问卷调查和文献分析法,识别城轨PPP项目的风险清单;其次,运用合作博弈思想进行风险初步分担;然后充分考虑影响PPP项目风险分配的因素,建立了基于Shapley值法的风险分配比例确定模型,并利用AHP法对模型的结果进行修正,得到合理的共担风险分配比例;最后,将此模型应用于青岛地铁4号线PPP项目不可抗力风险的风险分担中,得到了最优分担比例.In order to carry out a reasonable risk sharing of the PPP project of urban rail transit,this paper,firstly by means of questionnaire and literature analysis,identified the risk factors of PPP projects in rail transit;secondly,applied cooperative game theory to share the preliminary risk;thirdly,established the risk allocation model based on Shapley value method after comprehensively considering the factors that affect the risk allocation of PPP projects;and then AHP method was used to modify the results of the model to obtain a reasonable proportion of risk sharing;finally,this model was applied to the risk sharing of force majeure risk of Qingdao Metro Line 4 PPP project,and the optimal share ratio is obtained.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 PPP项目 风险分担 SHAPLEY值 层次分析法 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F572