基于灰色-马尔科夫链的海南自贸港农产品冷链物流需求预测  

Cold Chain Logistics Demand Forecast of Agricultural Products for Hainan Free Trade Port Based on Gray-Markov Chain

作　　者：李华 黄圣南 林夏繁 Li Hua;Huang Shengnan;Lin Xiafan(Department of Economics&Management,Hainan College of Economics&Business,Haikou 571127;Haikou Customs Technical Centre,Haikou 570311,China)

机构地区：[1]海南经贸职业技术学院工商管理学院,海南海口571127 [2]海口海关技术中心,海南海口570311

出　　处：《物流技术》2020年第11期52-57,122,共7页Logistics Technology

基　　金：海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSK(ZC)20-38)。

摘　　要：首先分析海南农产品冷链物流发展现状,其次利用灰色模型对海南农产品冷链物流需求进行预测,同时通过马尔科夫链模型对原有模型进行优化并作出定量预测。实证结果表明:优化后模型预测的精确度更高,未来海南农产品冷链物流需求呈线性增长趋势,但受生产能力、冷链物流供给能力、冷链物流体系不成熟等因素的制约,其增长将平稳推进。最后提出了相应对策建议,为政府扶持政策出台、冷链物流基础设备投入、冷链物流规划布局提供一定的参考依据。The paper firstly analyzed the development status of cold chain logistics for agricultural products in Hainan.Secondly,it used the gray model to predict the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Hainan.At the same time,it optimized the original model using Markov chain model and made a quantitative prediction.The empirical result shows that the optimized model has higher prediction accuracy,according to which the cold chain logistics demand of Hainan agricultural products shows a linear growth trend in the future;however,restricted by production capacity,supply capacity of cold chain logistics and imperfection of cold chain logistics system,the growth will be gradually thinned out.Finally,the paper put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,providing certain references for formulating government support policies,investing in cold chain logistics infrastructure or equipment,and planning and layout of cold chain logistics.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 海南自贸港 农产品 冷链物流 物流需求预测 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济] F259.27