甘肃地区前兆震群对省内及边邻中强地震的预测意义研究  

Study on the prediction significance of the precursory earthquake swarms to mid-strong earthquakes in Gansu and its adjacent area

作　　者：窦喜英 王恩利[2] 张辉 张博 张丽琼 DOU Xi-ying;WANG En-li;ZHANG Hui;ZHANG Bo;ZHANG Li-qiong(Gansu Earthquake Agency,Lanzhou 730000,China;Research Institute of Petrochina Exploration and Development(Northwest),Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省地震局,兰州730000 [2]中石油勘探开发研究院西北分院,兰州730020

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2020年第5期1651-1658,共8页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：甘肃省地震局地震科技计划项目(2020Y01,2015050);甘肃地震局创新团队(2019TD-02-03)共同资助。

摘　　要：为明确甘肃地区的前兆震群预测效能,依据震群识别、判定原则和前兆震群的判定标准,提取1980年以来甘肃地区所发生的35次中小地震前兆震群,将其与甘肃及边邻地区所发生的中强地震进行对应分析,探讨震群与对应地震在时间、空间、强度和构造的内在关系,并基于R值评分法进行预报效能评估,提炼甘肃地区较为准确的前兆震群预测指标,结果表明:排除2008年汶川8.0级地震及后续发生的2008年11月海西6.3、2009年8月海西6.4、5.9级地震对甘肃地区祁连山地震带的前兆震群活动的影响,利用前兆震群预测甘肃及邻区后续中强地震具有一定的效果,尤其是甘东南地区利用震群预测中强地震效果更佳;前兆震群结束后6个月以内发生的中强地震多位于甘肃省内.以上结论可为甘肃省地震趋势跟踪提供较好的参考依据.In order to determine the prediction efficiency of precursory earthquake swarms in Gansu area,according to the identifying and judging principle of the earthquake swarm and the judgment criteria of precursory earthquake swarms,35 precursory earthquake swarms which are composed of medium and small earthquakes in Gansu area since 1980 were extracted and analyzed correspondingly with mid-strong earthquakes occurred in Gansu and its adjacent area,whose purpose is to discuss the internal relationship between the precursory earthquake swarm and the corresponding earthquake in time,space,intensity and structure,and to evaluate the prediction efficiency based on the R-value scoring method,and then to refine the more accurate precursory earthquake swarm prediction index in Gansu area.The results show that the precursory earthquake swarm activity in Gansu Qilian Mountain seismic zone was affected by the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and the subsequent earthquakes which are Haixi 6.3 earthquake in November 2008,Haixi 6.4 and 5.9 earthquake in August 2009.After eliminating this effect,using precursory earthquake swarms to predict subsequent mid-strong earthquakes in Gansu and its adjacent area has a certain effect,especially this effect is better in east-southern Gansu province;the mid-strong earthquakes occurred within 6 months after the precursory earthquake swarms are mostly in Gansu Province.These conclusions can provide a good reference for the earthquake trend analysis in Gansu Province.

关 键 词：前兆震群 中强地震 预测效能 预测指标 震群活动 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]