北京市养老服务设施供需空间配置评价研究  

Research on the Evaluation of Supply and Demand Space Allocation of Beijing Pension Service Facilities

作　　者：林雷 刘黎明[2] LIN Lei;LIU Li-ming(School of Public Finance and Taxation of CUEB,Beijing 100070,China;School of Ststistic of CUEB,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院,北京100070 [2]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2020年第6期1022-1031,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：北京特大城市研究中心项目(TDJD201502)。

摘　　要：近年来,北京市养老设施发展迅速,但是由于快速的人口老龄化,北京市养老设施的供给仍难以满足老年人口对养老设施的需求,对北京市养老设施分布进行科学评价是进行合理空间配置的基础,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先利用寿险精算方法建立了北京市及其各街道老年人口测算模型,计算出2018年-2030年北京市及其各街道老年人口数,再通过两步移动搜索法评测在养老服务设施服务半径在单一阈值和不同阈值下2018年北京市养老服务设施可达性,实现对北京市养老设施的空间可达性评测,结果表明,北京市大部分街道可达床位数并不能达到“9064”规划要求,根据上述内容为养老设施的空间布局提出了政策性建议。In recent years,the elderly care facilities in Beijing have developed rapidly,but due to the rapid population aging,the supply of elderly care facilities in Beijing is still difficult to meet the needs of the elderly population.Scientific evaluation of the distribution of elderly care facilities in Beijing is the basis for rational space allocation and has important practical significance.This article first,uses the life insurance actuarial method to establish a measurement model for the elderly population in Beijing and its streets.Under the single threshold and different thresholds,the accessibility of Beijing's old-age care service facilities in 2018 has achieved a spatial accessibility assessment of Beijing’s old-age care facilities.The results show that the number of beds available in most streets of Beijing cannot reach the“9064”plan According to the above requirements,policy recommendations were proposed for the spatial layout of elderly care facilities.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老服务设施 寿险精算 两部移动搜索法 政策建议 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]