人类发展指数水平与足球运动发展的或然关系——基于面板数据的实证研究  

Probabilistic Relationship Between Human Development Index Level and Football Development:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data

作　　者：傅鸿浩 刘波 张廷安[3] 龚波[4] 郭振 肖辉[3] FU Honghao;LIU Bo;ZHANG Ting’an(Division of Sport Science and P.E., Tsinghua Univ., Beijing 100084, China;Dept. of P.E., Huazhong Univ. of Science and Tech., Wuhan 430074, China;Beijing Sport Univ., Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学体育部,北京100084 [2]华中科技大学体育学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]北京体育大学,北京100084 [4]上海体育学院,上海200438

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2020年第11期20-26,共7页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(17FTY002);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC890010);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2020M670265)。

摘　　要：足球运动在世界范围内的普及化与社会化程度日益增强,各国(地区)若要获得全球化竞争中的优势,应注重探讨社会与足球运动发展的关系。通过对1993-2017年131个国家(地区)的人类发展指数与足球排名积分的面板数据建模,以揭示两者之间的关系。研究结果表明,不同国家(地区)的人类发展指数对足球运动发展的影响应建立个体和时点双固定效应模型,模型最高的R2为0.87132,F检验值为71.01465,P<0.001,该模型具备较高的解释能力。结论固定效应模型在考虑历时性因素与不宜观测因素后,在1993-2017年阶段,人类发展指数对于足球运动的发展作用存在分化现象,尤其对亚洲与人口大国的足球运动发展存在制约作用,对南美洲与中等人口国家存在促进作用,人类发展指数与足球运动发展存在一定的或然关系。人类发展指数反映了社会发展的综合水平,对于存在制约效应的国家而言,应当着重考虑社会其它领域(经济、教育、医疗卫生等)与足球运动的互动、协同与融合发展。In order to gain the advantages in the process of globalization of competition,the relationship between society and football was discussed.The human development index and football ranking points of 131 countries(regions)from 1993 to 2017 were constructed as panel models to reveal the influence between the two.The results showed that the influences of the human development level in different countries(regions)on the development of football should be modeled by the variable coefficient model of bifixed effects.The model’s highest R2=0.87132,F test value was 71.01465,P<0.001.The model had a high explanatory ability.It could be concluded that for the fixed effects model,considering the diachronic factors with unfavorable observation,the human development index for football development differentiated from 1993 to 2017,limiting football sports development of especially Asian countries with large population while playing a significant role for the moderate populated countries in South America.The human development index was related to the football development.The human development index reflected the comprehensive level of social development.For countries with restrictive effects,the interaction and coordination between social development and football development should be considered.

关 键 词：足球发展 人类发展 面板数据 固定效应模型 变系数模型 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]