新冠疫情与东南亚经济的U形复苏:一种国际政治经济学的分析  

Covid-19 Pandemic and U-shaped Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia:An International Political Economy Analysis

作　　者：钟飞腾 ZHONG Feiteng(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2020年第5期1-23,154,共24页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2017年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国特色周边外交理论与实践创新研究”(17JZD035)。

摘　　要：东南亚经济成功的策略是实施了出口导向战略。凭借丰富的自然资源和大量训练有素的廉价劳动力,东南亚与开放的世界经济联系起来。东南亚国家拥有出色的经济管理能力,在外部市场减弱时加强了地区内市场一体化建设。通过与东北亚国家建立良好关系,东南亚国家扛住了1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年国际金融危机的冲击。在新冠疫情冲击下,东南亚经济正在进入严酷的经济负增长阶段,由于全球经济也将进入U形复苏,因而东南亚经济受冲击的严重程度要高于1997年亚洲金融危机。东南亚经济虽然会是一种U形复苏,但其发展战略成功的基本要素还在,东南亚国家需要更加重视东亚的地区合作,特别是进一步加强与中国的深度合作。The success of Southeast Asian economy is to implement export-oriented strategy.With abundant natural resources and a large number of trained and cheap labor,it is connected with the open world economy.Southeast Asian countries have excellent economic management ability and strengthen the construction of regional market integration when the external market weakens.Through the establishment of good relations with Northeast Asian countries,it has withstood the impact of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the international financial crisis in 2008.Under the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,the Southeast Asian economy is entering a severe negative economic growth stage.As the global economy will also enter a U-shaped recovery,the severity of Southeast Asian economy is higher than that of the 1997 East Asian financial crisis.Although the economic recovery of Southeast Asia will be a U-shaped recovery,the basic elements for its development strategy are still there.Southeast Asia should insist to improve the regional cooperation in East Asia,especially considering the deep cooperation with China.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 经济增长 东南亚 U形复苏 出口导向 区域合作 

分 类 号：F133.44[经济管理—世界经济]