论分离主义冲突的持续路径差异——基于印尼、泰国和菲律宾的比较研究  

Trajectory Differences of Separatism Conflict Duration—A Comparative Study Based on Indonesia,Thailand and the Philippines

作　　者：宋菁菁 SONG Jingjing(School of International Studies/Academy of Overseas Chinese Studies,Jinan University,Guangzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2020年第5期93-114,156,157,共24页Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：本文提出中央政府权力格局类型和分离组织动员网络特征是影响冲突持续路径差异的重要原因,并以印尼、泰国和菲律宾的分离主义冲突作为案例,通过比较历史分析,考察分离主义冲突在不同国家、不同历史时期为何呈现出不同的持续路径。本文认为:在中央政府实力远胜于分离组织的情况下,当强力型政府面对具有密集型动员网络的分离组织时,冲突双方可能陷入激烈的内战;当强力型政府面对具有分散型动员网络的分离组织时,在中央政府的强大压力下,分离组织更可能采取一些极端化的策略。与之相应,当脆弱型政府面对具有密集型动员网络的分离组织时,双方可能陷入持续的谈判—冲突困境;而当脆弱型政府面对具有分散型动员网络的分离组织时,国家更可能陷入到边缘性叛乱之中。本文案例的检验过程对边缘性叛乱出现的诱因做出了一些修正。This article applies comparative historic analysis into the separatism conflict cases from Indonesia,Thailand and the Philippine,exploring the reason that leads to different trajectories of separatism conflict duration.The argument of this article is that the power configuration of the central government and the characteristics of the support networks of separatist groups will influence the trajectories of separatist conflict duration.In the conflict where a strength of the central government is far superior to a separatist group.When a tough central government meets with a separatist group with a dense network,the conflict will cline to civil war.If a weak central government meets with a separatist group with a dense network,the state will slip into negotiation-conflict trap.If a tough central government meets with a separatist group with a disperse network,the conflict will cline to extreme violence.If a weak central government meets with a separatist group with a disperse network,the conflict will cline to marginal violence.The case study revises the reason of marginal insurgence.

关 键 词：分离主义冲突 持续路径 权力格局 动员网络 印尼 泰国 菲律宾 

分 类 号：D733.62[政治法律—政治学]