江苏省城镇用地扩展时空格局及驱动因素分析  

Analysis on the Spatio-temporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Urban Land Expansion in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：朱媛媛 卢锐 ZHU Yuanyuan;LU Rui(School of Economics and Management,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院,杭州311121

出　　处：《湖北民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期474-480,共7页Journal of Hubei Minzu University:Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：为研究城镇用地扩展的驱动因素,使用城镇用地扩展强度指数和城镇用地扩展差异指数对江苏省城镇用地扩展的时空格局进行分析.通过构建重心-时空地理加权回归模型,研究江苏省2000-2018年城镇用地扩展驱动因素,得到主要结论:2000-2015年江苏省城镇用地扩展速度较快,2016-2018年呈现出增长减缓的趋势;城镇用地扩展在空间上有明显的关联性和聚集性,以南通市为中心的发展圈层城镇用地扩展强度高于研究区整体水平;第三产业占比、每万人医院床位数和人均道路面积对城镇用地扩展具有正向的驱动作用,人口密度由于受到城市发展时期的影响,对某些城市的城镇用地扩展具有负向的驱动影响.In order to study the driving factors of urban land expansion,this paper uses the urban land expansion intensity index and the urban land expansion difference index to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urban land expansion in Jiangsu province.By constructing a weighted regression model of center of gravity-spatial and temporal geography and studying the driving factors of urban land expansion in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2018,the following main conclusions are obtained:The urban land expansion rate of Jiangsu province was relatively fast from 2000 to 2015,and the growth rate was slowing in 2015-2018;The expansion of urban land use has obvious spatial relevance and clustering,and the land expansion intensity of the development circle town centered on Nantong city is higher than the overall level of the study area;The proportion of the tertiary industry,the number of hospital beds per 10000 people,and the per capita road area have a positive driving effect on the expansion of urban land,but the population density is affected by the period of urban development and has a negative impact on the expansion of urban land in some cities.

关 键 词：城镇用地扩展 驱动力 时空地理加权回归模型 重心转移模型 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]