“一带一路”能源投资背景下的中国天然气供应安全分析  

China's natural gas supply security under the background of"One Belt and One Road"energy investment

作　　者：张珺[1,2] 谭金萍 ZHANG Jun;TAN Jinping(College of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China;Guangzhou Nansha FTA Research Basement,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院 [2]广州南沙自由贸易试验区研究基地

出　　处：《天然气工业》2020年第11期159-167,共9页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般规划项目“‘一带一路’能源投资背景下我国天然气供应安全研究”(编号:20BGJ034);教育部人文社科资助项目“中国与‘一带一路’沿线主要国家贸易分析——基于增加值贸易核算”(编号:17YJA790092);暨南领航计划“粤港澳大湾区协同参与全球高端产业链竞争的路径与对策研究”(编号:19JNLH06)。

摘　　要：能源合作是“一带一路”取得成果最为显著的领域之一,识别其投资环境对我国天然气供应安全的影响因素,对于有效规避海外天然气投资失误、保障国家能源安全具有重要的意义。为此,首先构建了6大维度、26项指标的天然气投资风险评价体系,利用熵权—模糊综合评价模型量化分析我国在“一带一路”沿线31个国家的天然气投资风险变化,进而构建了包含9个指标的天然气供应安全(SSI)测度体系,并进行了综合评价。结论认为:①我国在“一带一路”沿线31国的天然气投资应首要考虑资源潜力,其次应考虑商业环境、环境约束、经济环境、政治环境、双边关系;②要积极关注沿线国家天然气投资风险水平的变化,在关注天然气投资目标国资源潜力和商业环境的同时,以经济和贸易合作为支撑点,开展天然气等能源合作,形成与沿线国家的战略能源合作伙伴关系;③在积极降低天然气国外投资风险、保障我国天然气供应安全的同时,要突破技术障碍、提高国内天然气产量、降低对外依存度;④在新冠疫情爆发、国际石油价格大幅度波动的环境下,更需要重视和“一带一路”沿线国家打造油气合作利益共同体,推动“一带一路”天然气贸易和交易中心建设,联通俄罗斯、中亚五国、日韩、东南亚、澳大利亚等重要的天然气供给与消费区,构建开放环境下的天然气安全保障机制。The achievement of the"Belt and Road Initiative"is the most remarkable in the field of energy cooperation,and identifying the influences of its investment environment on China's natural gas supply security is of great significance to effectively avoid overseas natural gas investment mistakes and ensure national energy security.In this paper,a natural gas investment risk evaluation system was firstly constructed from six dimensions of 26 indicators,and the change of China's natural gas investment risks in 31 countries along"One Belt and One Road"was quantitatively analyzed by using the entropy weight-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.Then,the natural gas supply security indicator(SSI)measurement system containing 9 indicators was constructed.Finally,comprehensive evaluation was carried out.And the following conclusions were reached.First,as for China's natural gas investment in 31 countries along"One Belt and One Road",China shall primarily consider resource potential and secondarily business environment,environmental constraint,economic environment,political environment and bilateral relationship.Second,it is necessary to actively pay attention to the change of the natural gas investment risk level in the countries along"One Belt and One Road".While paying attention to the resource potential and business environment in the target country of natural gas investment,energy cooperation(e.g.natural gas)shall be carried out with economic and trade cooperation as the support,to form a strategic energy cooperation partnership with the countries along"One Belt and One Road".Third,while actively reducing overseas natural gas investment risks and ensuring domestic natural gas supply security,it is necessary to break through the technological barriers,increase domestic natural gas production and reduce external dependence.Fourth,in the environment of the outbreak of COVID-19 and the large-amplitude fluctuation of international oil price,more attention shall be paid to establishing the benefit community of petroleum cooper

关 键 词：“一带一路” 贸易与投资 天然气 供应安全指数 投资风险 熵权 模糊综合评价模型 多边合作 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F125