气候变化和人类活动对白河流域径流变化影响的定量研究  

Quantitative analysis of the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff variations of Baihe River Basin

作　　者：王晓颖 宋培兵 廖卫红[3] 张永波[1] 蔡思宇[3] 雷晓辉[3] WANG Xiaoying;SONG Peibing;LIAO Weihong;ZHANG Yongbo;CAI Siyu;LEI Xiaohui(College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuon University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;College of Cinil Engineering and Architecure,Zhejiang Unitersiy,Hangzhou 310058,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropover Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2020年第4期50-56,共7页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51709273);中国电力建设股份有限公司项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02);广东省水利创新科技项目(2017-06)。

摘　　要：分析气候变化和人类活动对白河流域径流变化的贡献率,可为流域水资源规划与管理提供依据。以白河流域作为研究对象,首先采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法分析水文气象要素的年际变化趋势,其次采用Mann-Kendall检验、有序聚类检验和滑动t检验探究年径流量的突变年份,最后采用基于Budyko假设的水量平衡法评估气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:白河流域年径流量呈下降趋势,2008-2017年平均径流量仅为1960-1969年平均径流量的36.5%;年径流量在1979年发生突变,在1986年以后呈显著下降趋势;与基准期相比,变化期流域的干旱指数在增加,2001-2017年流域的干旱更为明显;人类活动是白河流域径流变化的主要原因,1980-2000年、2001-2017年人类活动对径流变化的平均贡献率分别为85.6%、73.6%,说明2000年以后气候变化对径流变化的影响呈上升趋势。Studies on the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the runoff variations of Baihe River Basin is valuable for the planning and management of water resources in this area. In this paper the Baihe River Basin was selected as the study area,linear trend method and moving average method were adopted to analyze the interannual trends of hydrometeorological elements. Then,Mann-Kendall test,sequential cluster test and moving t test were adopted to investigate the abrupt change year of the annual runoff. Finally,multiple water balance methods based on Budyko hypothesis were adopted to evaluate the influences of climate change and human activities on the runoff variations. Results show that the annual runoff in Baihe River Basin showed a downward trend,the average runoff from 2008 to 2017 only reached 36. 5% of that from 1960 to 1969. The abrupt change of annual runoff happened in 1979 and the annual runoff showed a significant downward trend after 1986. Compared to the base period,the drought index increased in the variation period and the droughts became more severe from 2001 to 2017. Human activities was the major cause of runoff variations,its average contribution rates to the runoff variations were 85. 6% and 73. 6% for the periods of 1980-2000 and 2001-2017 respectively,which also indicate that the influences of climate change on the runoff variations were on the rise.

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 人类活动 突变检验 Budyko假设 白河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]