境外投资项目基准收益率中风险系数的确定方法探讨  

Discussion on the determination method of the risk coefficient of benchmark return rate of overseas investment projects

作　　者：杜敏[1] 冯文康 江兆龙 陈嘉伦 DU Min;FENG Wenkang;JIANG Zhaolong;CHEN Jialun(PetroChina Planning&Engineering Institute;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation)

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院 [2]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第11期90-97,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：基准收益率是企业进行投资决策的关键参考标准,是投资者要求的最低投资回报率。当中国企业在境外国家进行投资时,能否参照以中国市场数据为基础测算的基准收益率指标,该指标的高低如何区别不同国家的政治经济环境差异,国家差异对基准收益率的影响会有多大等,这些是在确定境外投资项目基准收益率时应重点研究的问题。通过对境外资本市场大盘指数与上市公司数据的测算,考虑不同机构对不同国家投资风险的评价,对比中国出口信用保险公司和中国社会科学院对世界各国风险评级的方法和结果,选择中国出口信用保险公司的国家风险评级结果,在资本资产定价模型测算国内外加权资金成本差额的基础上,设计了境外风险系数,以此区别不同国家对应的基准收益率指标,指导境外项目投资决策工作的开展。Benchmark return rate is the key reference standards of enterprise investment decisions and the minimum rate of return by investors.Such questions of Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign countries as can they refer the Chinese market data to be measured on the basis of the benchmark yield index,how to distinguish the difference of political and economic environment in different countries by the index level,and how much country differences affect benchmark yields,should be studied in determining the benchmark return rate of overseas investment projects.By calculating the index of overseas capital market and the data of listed companies,taking into account the evaluation of investment risks in different countries by different institutions,the paper compares the methods and results of China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in the risk rating of various countries in the world,selects the country risk rating from China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation as a result,designs the overseas risk coefficient to distinguish the index of benchmark discount rate in different countries and guide the overseas project investment decision-making work on the basis of capital asset pricing model to calculate the balance of domestic and foreign weighted capital costs.

关 键 词：境外项目 基准收益率 境外风险系数 国家风险评级 加权资金成本 资本资产定价模型 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]