油气储量资产交易价值评估方法及案例剖析  

The analysis on cases and methods of price evaluation for oil and gas reserves asset transactions

作　　者：田军[1] 王霞[2] 段晓文[1] 戴传瑞 冯乔 徐良 TIAN Jun;WANG Xia;DUAN Xiaowen;DAI Chuanrui;FENG Qiao;XU Liang(PetroChina Exploration&Production Company;PetroChina Hangzhou Research Institute of Geology)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司勘探与生产分公司 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司杭州地质研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第11期98-105,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：国外储量资产交易价值评估方法较为成熟,分为4类:收入预测法、经验估算法、对比销售法、勘查费用法。按照国际上的储量分类体系,储量及资源分为3级:储量(P)、基本储量(C)、远景资源量(U)。国际油气资产交易以P为主,也有少量的C。结合国内外不同的储量定义及分类分级方法,根据油气勘探开发阶段和油气储量可靠程度,提出了剩余经济可采储量适合作为国内油气储量资产交易价值评估基数的建议。推荐了不同阶段、不同储量级别的油气储量资产交易价值评估方法。在预探阶段,若仅发现资源量或预测储量,可采用勘查费用法、对比销售法等估算油气储量资产交易价值。在油气藏评价阶段,可采用对比销售法及经验估算法。在开发阶段,通常以收入预测法即净现值法(NPV)为主进行评价。以美国的埃尔克希尔斯(Elk Hills)油田权益储量的案例进行剖析,对油价和成本的不同上涨与下跌趋势的预测,会较大程度地影响油气储量资产交易价值评估。The foreign mature price evaluation methods of reserve assets transaction can be divided into such four categories as income prediction method,empirical estimation method,comparative sales method,and exploration fee method.According to the international reserve classification system,reserves and resources are divided into such three levels as reserves(P),basic reserves(C),and prospective resources(U).International oil and gas asset trading is dominated by P,as well as small amount of C.Combined with the different definitions and classification methods of reserves at home and abroad,this paper puts forward that the remaining economic recoverable reserves can be used as the evaluation base of the transaction value of domestic oil and gas reserves assets according to the stage of oil and gas exploration and development and the degree of oil and gas reserves reliability and also recommends several price evaluation methods at different stages and levels.In the pre-exploration stage,if only the amount of resources or the predicted reserves are found,the transaction value of oil and gas reserves assets can be estimated by means of exploration fee and comparative sales methods.In the evaluation stage of oil and gas reservoir,comparative sales method and empirical estimation method can be used.In the development stage,the income prediction method,namely the net present value method(NPV),is usually used for evaluation.Taking the case study of Elk Hills oil field in the United States as an example,the prediction of different rising and falling trends of oil prices and costs will greatly influence the valuation of oil and gas reserves assets.

关 键 词：油气储量资产交易 价值评估方法 勘探开发阶段 交易案例 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]