区域饭店业经营风险测度研究——以浙江为例  

Research on the Measurement of Operational Risk of Regional Hotel Industry——By Taking Zhejiang As An Example

作　　者：杨国强[1] YANG Guo-qiang(Department of Hotel Management, Tourism College of Zhejiang, Hangzhou 311231, China)

机构地区：[1]浙江旅游职业学院酒店管理系,杭州311231

出　　处：《西安文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期22-26,共5页Journal of Xi’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：浙江省高等学校访问工程师校企合作项目(FG2017066)。

摘　　要：为了对区域饭店业经营风险定量评价,以浙江为例,构建自回归条件异方差(GRACH)模型和风险价值(VaR)测度模型,对浙江饭店业总体及不同档次饭店每间可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)的波动性以及VaR风险进行研究.研究表明,浙江饭店业经营RevPAR波动非常明显,波动方差风险较大,有聚集效应,且档次越高,经营风险越大.不同档次饭店VaR风险值有较大差异性.将经济学领域常用模型引入饭店业风险测度研究,为饭店业发展与经营提供理论帮助.In this paper,in order to quantitatively evaluate the operational risk of regional hotel industry,by taking Zhejiang as an example,the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GRACH)model and value at risk(VaR)measurement model are constructed to study the volatility of RevPAR and VaR risk of whole and different grades of hotels in Zhejiang hotel industry.The results show that the volatility of RevPAR in Zhejiang hotel industry is very obvious,the risk of volatility variance is large,and there is aggregation effect,and the higher the grade is,the greater the operation risks are.The VaR value of different grade hotels is quite different.In this paper,the commonly used models in the field of economics are introduced into the study of risk measurement of hotel industry to provide theoretical help for the development and operation of hotel industry.

关 键 词：区域饭店业 RevPAR 风险价值模型 风险测度 

分 类 号：F719.2[经济管理—产业经济]