不同年限降雨资料编制暴雨强度公式适用性分析  

Applicability Analysis of Rainstorm Intensity Formula Establishment by Using Different Time Periods of Rainfall Data

作　　者：刘焕彬[1] 邱粲[1,2] 王荣 LIU Huan-bin;QIU Can;WANG Rong(Shandong Climate Center,Jinan 250031,China;School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [2]上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海200234 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2020年第19期114-120,共7页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502701)。

摘　　要：依据济南气象站1961年—2017年的分钟降雨资料,采用年最大值选样法构建11个历时的雨量系列,应用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布、耿贝尔分布和指数分布进行曲线拟合,最小二乘法求参数,得到1961年—2017年、1971年—2017年、1981年—2017年、1991年—2017年等4个不同年限降雨资料的暴雨强度公式。皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布曲线拟合公式的平均绝对均方差和相对均方差均满足规范要求,其中1991年—2017年降雨资料编制的暴雨强度公式得出的降雨强度最大,符合济南市的降雨规律,更偏安全。结果表明,在编制暴雨强度公式时,选取不同的降雨年份作为样本,其暴雨强度公式的计算结果会有所不同。不能仅仅以长期降雨资料为依据,应根据样本特点,分析判断数据段的选取方法,以使得到的设计暴雨强度更加合理。According to rainfall data(1961-2017)of Jinan meteorological station,rainfall series of 11 durations were constructed by using annual maximum sample selection method.Pearson-Ⅲtype distribution,Gumbel distribution and exponential distribution were used to fit the sample sequence,and the least squares method was used to obtain the parameters.Based on this,rainstorm intensity formulas of rainfall data from four different time periods(1961 to 2017,1971 to 2017,1981 to 2017,and 1991 to 2017)were obtained.The average absolute mean square error and relative mean square error of the formula fitted by the Pearson-Ⅲdistribution curve met the requirements of the specification.Among them,the maximum rainfall intensity was obtained from the formula compiled by the rainfall data from 1991 to 2017,which was in line with the rainfall law of Jinan and was more secure.When compiling a rainstorm intensity formula,calculation results of the formula would be different if different rainfall years were selected as samples,and it should not be only depended on long-term rainfall data.The selection method of the data segment should be judged according to the characteristics of the sample,so as to make the design rain storm intensity more reasonable.

关 键 词：暴雨强度公式 降雨资料 年限 适用性分析 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]