基于博弈论集对分析模型的机坪管制运行风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Apron Control Operation in Entropy Weight Extension Model

作　　者：王润东[1] 潘卫军[1] 陈晓光 卞晓峰[3] WANG Run-dong;PAN Wei-jun;CHEN Xiao-guang;BIAN Xiao-feng(Air Traffic Management College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China;Xiamen Air Traffic Management Station of Civil Aviation, Xiamen 361000, China;Training Center, Northeast Air Management Bureau of Civil Aviation, Shenyang 110042, China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,广汉618307 [2]民航厦门空中交通管理站,厦门361000 [3]民航东北空管局培训中心,沈阳110042

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2020年第30期12636-12643,共8页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：民航华东空管局科技项目计划(KJ1802);中国民航飞行学院面上项目(J2019-042,J2020-087)。

摘　　要：考虑大型机场机坪管制运行风险评价因素的不确定性,提出了基于博弈论集对分析模型的机坪管制运行风险评价模型。根据机坪管制运行的业务流程,构建了涵盖“人、机、环、管”四个方面的机坪管制运行风险评价指标体系。基于博弈论思想将层次分析法得到的主观权重和熵权法得到的客观权重进行最优组合来确定各指标权重;根据集对分析理论的同异反模型来计算样本的综合联系度,由此确定机坪运行风险等级和发展趋势,并提出合理的安全建议。最后通过实例验证,得到各样本评价结果与实际情况基本相符,证明了该评价模型的可靠性。Considering the uncertainty of the risk assessment factors of airport apron operation,a risk assessment model for airport ramp operation based on game theory set was proposed.According to the process of apron control operation,a risk evaluation indicator system of apron control operation was established,covering the four aspects of“man,machine,environment,and management”.The subjective weights obtained from the analytic hierarchy method and the objective weights obtained from the entropy weight method were optimally combined to determine the weights of the indicators.The comprehensive connection degree of the samples was calculated by the similarity,difference,and inverse model in the set pair analysis theory,by which the apron operation risk level and development trend were determined,thus the reasonable safety recommendations could be proposed.Finally,real-case verification results of the sample evaluation were well consistent with the actual situation.The result prove the reliability of the evaluation model.

关 键 词：机坪管制运行 博弈论 集对分析 组合赋权 风险评价 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]