人口老龄化、城镇化与经济增长的关系研究  

Research on Relationship among Population Aging, Urbanization and Economic Growth

作　　者：王知桂[1] 陈家敏 Wang Zhigui;Chen Jiamin

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《创新》2020年第6期22-33,共12页Innovation

摘　　要：为了加快转变经济增长方式,推动经济高质量发展,需要厘清人口老龄化、城镇化和经济增长之间的关系。文章选取我国30个省份的面板数据作为样本,构建PVAR模型和中介效应模型,并运用GMM、脉冲响应和方差分解进行分析,得到以下四项研究结果:一是我国的经济增长存在自身发展的惯性现象,而人口老龄化与城镇化不具有明显的相互依赖性;二是城镇化和经济增长会减缓人口老龄化;三是人口老龄化通过人力资本对经济增长产生正向影响,但仍无法抵消人口老龄化对经济增长的直接负向作用;四是城镇化会直接促进经济增长,也会通过人力资本和产业结构高级化间接影响经济增长。在未来,人口老龄化方面,要完善基本公共服务体系,激发"银发经济"市场活力;在城镇化方面,要完善人才政策,深化户籍改革,合理调整产业结构。To accelerate the transformation of economic growth pattern and support high-quality economic development,it is necessary to clarify the relationship among population aging,urbanization and economic growth.Based on the sample of panel data of 30 provinces in China,this paper constructs PVAR model and mediation model and makes analyses using GMM,impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that:(1)China’s economic growth has its own development inertia,while population aging and urbanization have no obvious interdependence;(2)Urbanization and economic growth will slow down the pace of population aging;(3)Population aging has a positive impact on economic growth through human capital,but it still cannot offset the direct negative effect of population aging on economic growth;(4)Urbanization directly increases economic growth,and it also has indirect impacts on economic growth through human capital and industrial structure upgrading.In the future,efforts are needed to improve basic public service system and stimulate the market vitality of"silver economy"in terms of population aging;efforts are also needed to improve human resource policy,deepen household registration reform and improve industrial structure in terms of urbanization.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 城镇化 经济增长 面板向量自回归模型 中介效应模型 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F061.3